Kazatomprom–India uranium deal: supply, offtake and deficit risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Kazatomprom has agreed a uranium supply deal with India’s Department of Atomic Energy covering more than 50% of the company’s booked asset value, potentially locking in long-term offtake from the world’s largest resource holder. The transaction, which requires shareholder approval via an extraordinary general meeting under Kazakh law, comes as Kazatomprom lifted output to 67.2 million lb U₃O₈ in 2025, up 10% year-on-year, and targets a further 9% increase this year. Analysts, including Teniz Capital, still see a structural uranium deficit despite this additional Kazakh supply.
Technical Brief
- Supply agreement is with India’s Department of Atomic Energy, implying sovereign-backed, long-horizon offtake risk profile.
- Transaction size exceeds 50% of Kazatomprom’s booked asset value, triggering Kazakh statutory shareholder approval thresholds.
- Extraordinary general meeting will be convened specifically to vote on this uranium offtake contract.
- Kazatomprom currently controls about 20% of global uranium production, concentrating supply-side contract risk.
- Last year’s output of 67.2 million lb U₃O₈ was reported on a 100% project basis.
- Production in the previous year matched published guidance, indicating strong adherence to mine plan scheduling.
- Teniz Capital characterises current demand growth as a “second nuclear renaissance”, implying sustained contracting pressure.
- Structural deficit expectations suggest long-term incentive pricing for new uranium projects and brownfield expansions.
Our Take
In our database, Kazatomprom’s move to boost uranium output by about 9% in 2026 (covered in the 2 Feb item on its Budenovskoye ramp-up) aligns with this offtake to India, signalling that a material portion of its incremental production is likely being pre-committed to state-backed nuclear utilities rather than left for the spot market.
Teniz Capital’s January forecast of a “long-duration structural bull market” in uranium, with mine output covering only 74–90% of current demand, suggests this Indian offtake deal will tighten discretionary supply further and could reinforce upward pressure on prices if other Asian buyers seek similar long-term contracts with Kazatomprom.
With uranium spot prices recently jumping above US$100/lb in our recent coverage and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust continuing to accumulate material, Kazatomprom’s role as a 20% global producer means long-term sales to India’s Department of Atomic Energy may prioritise security of supply for reactors over maximising exposure to financialised spot demand.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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