Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Iran war and Indonesia nickel curbs: price and project signals for mine planners

    April 15, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Iran war and Indonesia nickel curbs: price and project signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    War in Iran and Indonesia’s decision to cap 2026 nickel ore quotas at 260–270 million wet tonnes, down from 379 million tonnes, are expected to support prices, with BMI lifting its 2026 forecast to $16,600/t despite a projected 324,000‑tonne global surplus. Sulphur supply disruptions from the Middle East, critical for Indonesia’s HPAL plants, have already forced several processors to cut output by at least 10%, while higher energy costs are pressuring higher‑cost producers outside Indonesia. Demand growth is seen slowing to about 3% in 2026 as lithium iron phosphate batteries displace nickel‑rich chemistries.

    Technical Brief

    • Indonesia’s refined nickel output is forecast to grow 9.8% in 2026 after 9% growth in 2025.
    • BMI sees the global refined nickel surplus widening “modestly” to about 324,000 tonnes in 2026.
    • Three‑month LME nickel futures traded at $18,250/t after a 2.9% daily gain.
    • More than two‑thirds of Indonesia’s sulphur imports originate from the Middle East, exposing HPAL input costs to disruption.
    • Sulphur shortages linked to the Iran conflict have already forced several Indonesian processors to cut output by ≥10%.
    • Higher energy costs are described as particularly challenging for higher‑cost nickel operations outside Indonesia.
    • Global nickel demand growth is projected to slow from 5.8% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026.
    • BMI’s long‑term price path rises from $16,700/t next year to $19,000/t by 2030 and $22,000/t by 2032.

    Our Take

    The same Strait of Hormuz and China sulphur/sulphuric acid constraints flagged in our 13 April coverage are now intersecting with Indonesia’s nickel ore quota cuts, implying a double cost squeeze for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects that rely on both nickel feed and sulphuric acid.

    With nickel sitting alongside sulphur in 72 keyword-matched pieces in our database, the current pricing support narrative is increasingly tied to fertiliser and acid-market logistics rather than just EV demand, which gives operators in regions like Congo and Russia exposure to a wider set of supply-chain shocks than in past nickel cycles.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    MAX Power Mining–Moose Jaw hydrogen MOU: subsurface and capex notes for engineers
    Mining
    about 16 hours ago

    MAX Power Mining–Moose Jaw hydrogen MOU: subsurface and capex notes for engineers

    MAX Power Mining has signed an MOU with the City of Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, to advance natural hydrogen commercialisation in the Regina–Moose Jaw Industrial Corridor, centred on the Lawson Natural Hydrogen system near Central Butte, about 80 km northwest of the city. Core desorption tests from nine samples in Cambrian Basal sands above the Basement Complex discovery returned helium values up to 8.7%, averaging 4.4%, indicating a potentially valuable hydrogen–helium system. The partners aim to leverage existing regional infrastructure and policy support to move the project towards commercial validation.

    Water shortages and mining projects: schedule and design takeaways for engineers
    Mining
    about 17 hours ago

    Water shortages and mining projects: schedule and design takeaways for engineers

    Water scarcity and multi‑year permitting delays—often two to four years for discharge and dewatering approvals in the western US—are increasingly stalling otherwise bankable mines, with water risk now affecting project schedules, financing and national credit profiles. Consultants such as Woodard & Curran report that “credible water stories” are becoming as critical as ore grades, pushing operators towards closed‑loop recycling and non‑traditional sources. US firms Genesis Systems and Atoco are deploying atmospheric water generation units, including Genesis’ containerised WaterCube systems producing over 1,000 gallons per day off‑grid, now trialled at mine sites.

    Nouveau Monde’s Matawinie graphite mine: capex, schedule and offtake lens for engineers
    Mining
    about 20 hours ago

    Nouveau Monde’s Matawinie graphite mine: capex, schedule and offtake lens for engineers

    Nouveau Monde Graphite has approved construction of the Matawinie open-pit mine in Saint-Michel-des-Saints, Quebec, designed to produce about 106,000 tonnes per year of graphite concentrate over more than 25 years and powered by the provincial hydroelectric grid. The company has secured roughly $644.5 million in equity and debt, with total capex for Matawinie and the Bécancour battery material plant now estimated at about $634 million after downsizing the plant from the 2025 feasibility study. A 30‑month build is planned to reach full production by end‑2028, with 75% of output under offtake, including a seven‑year, 30,000‑t/y fixed‑price contract with the Government of Canada.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental