Gold price rises on US–Venezuela fallout: risk and valuation notes for miners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold jumped nearly 3% on Monday after the US attack on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro, with spot prices reaching a one-week high of $4,455.42/oz and US futures touching $4,480/oz, about $100 below late‑2025 records. Analysts at OCBC, Natixis and Heraeus note the move is driven by safe‑haven flows layered onto existing concerns over geopolitics, energy supply and Fed easing, with Goldman Sachs’ base case targeting $4,900/oz. For miners and project financiers, the spike reinforces gold’s sensitivity to short‑term geopolitical shocks despite historically limited long‑run price effects.
Technical Brief
- Gold gained 64% in 2025, driven by geopolitical flashpoints and US Fed easing.
- Natixis analysis finds gold’s long-run price response to geopolitical shocks is smaller and shorter-lived than oil.
- OCBC’s Christopher Wong expects Venezuela’s situation to resolve quickly, limiting risk of a prolonged military conflict.
- Heraeus’ Alexander Zumpfe links current move to combined concerns over geopolitics, energy supply and monetary policy.
- Central bank accumulation and ETF inflows were key contributors to last year’s sustained price escalation.
- Goldman Sachs’ base case, issued last month, targets $4,900/oz with upside risk if tensions broaden.
- Trump’s weekend comments extended beyond Venezuela, flagging Greenland ambitions and potential actions against Colombia and Mexico.
Our Take
With gold already having posted a 64% gain last year and now trading about $100 below its late‑2025 peak, projects in Latin America and Greenland in our database that were marginal at lower prices are more likely to clear internal hurdle rates or attract financing.
The US Energy Department’s $2.7 billion in uranium enrichment orders, alongside support of up to $50 million for Viridis at the Colossus rare earth project, signals that US policy is simultaneously tightening physical security of uranium supply and seeding non‑Chinese rare earth capacity, which could reshape project economics for similar US‑aligned assets in our coverage.
Azerbaijan’s oil fund earning more than $10 billion from gold investments underlines that sovereign wealth and state funds are now significant players in the gold market, which can amplify price moves driven by geopolitical shocks such as the US–Venezuela standoff referenced here.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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