Gold price rebound on Trump’s Iran pause: risk-cycle lessons for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold rebounded sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause in planned military strikes on Iran, with spot prices recovering from an intraday plunge of about 8% in London to nearly $4,100/oz to trade around $4,480/oz by 11:15 a.m. in New York. Comex futures remained 2.7% lower at $4,471/oz and silver also clawed back from losses of more than 10%, amid what analysts describe as forced selling driven by a global liquidity crunch and a crowded long-gold trade. Citigroup and BNP Paribas note gold is behaving like a pro‑cyclical risk asset, with possible central bank sales to fund high energy imports adding pressure but with past shock cycles (2008, 2020, 2022) typically followed by sustained rallies.
Technical Brief
- Monday’s intraday plunge marked gold’s lowest traded level of 2026 before the subsequent rebound.
- The fall capped eight consecutive down sessions, giving bullion its worst week since the 1980s.
- Selling pressure was amplified by a global liquidity crunch, forcing liquidation of profitable gold positions to cover equity losses.
- Citigroup notes gold has behaved as a pro‑cyclical risk asset during recent broad risk‑off episodes.
- Analysts cite heavy momentum and retail buying over the past six months, making gold an “overcrowded trade”.
- Natixis’ Bernard Dahdah flags likely central bank gold sales or slowed purchases to fund higher energy imports.
- Central banks had been on a strong accumulation streak since 2022, with buying already decelerating into this year.
- BNP Paribas compares current price action to previous economic‑shock cycles, where initial gold sell‑offs preceded sustained rallies.
Our Take
The sharp intraday moves in gold and silver here contrast with the January 2026 related piece where gold was above $5,300/oz, signalling that bullion volatility around US political shocks is now comparable to that seen around macro data surprises like CPI and dollar weakness.
Citigroup and BNP Paribas, both quoted in this article, also feature prominently across multiple January 2026 gold and silver items in our database, underlining that their house views are increasingly shaping short-term positioning in precious metals rather than longer-horizon project financing decisions.
The nearly 10% drop in copper prices since late February, alongside coal-related stake sale plans at Coal India subsidiaries SECL and MCL, suggests base and bulk commodity producers are facing a very different price and capital-allocation environment from gold-focused operators, which may slow discretionary mine expansions in copper and coal while bullion projects remain comparatively insulated.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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