Gold price in 2025: key mining and project risk takeaways for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold shattered records in 2025, setting 50 all‑time highs and reaching $4,549.71/oz on Boxing Day, while Basel III reclassified physical bullion as a Tier 1 high-quality liquid asset that US banks can count at 100% of market value. Barrick’s Loulo‑Gounkoto complex in Mali was twice hit by state seizures totalling roughly $245m and 35,000 oz, forcing shutdowns until a $430m settlement in November. Geopolitical tension over reserves intensified as Germany and Italy faced pressure to repatriate a combined 5,800 tonnes held largely in US vaults.
Technical Brief
- Mid-July helicopter intervention at Barrick’s Loulo‑Gounkoto removed ~35,000 oz of doré from site.
- Prior to the July lift-off, Loulo‑Gounkoto had already been placed under provisional state administration.
- Poll responses were taken when spot gold was ~US$4,250/oz, before the subsequent >US$4,500/oz move.
- Burkina Faso, Africa’s fourth‑largest gold producer, sought a sizeable state stake in a new mine in August.
Our Take
With gold hitting all-time peaks 50 times in 2025 and Germany and Italy’s reserves valued around $320 billion, the Basel III move to allow US banks to count 100% of physical gold as HQLA effectively pushes bullion further into the mainstream of bank capital planning, which could underpin sustained institutional demand beyond traditional central bank buying.
The dispute at Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali, involving hundreds of millions of dollars in seized gold and a $430 million settlement, echoes other West African gold pieces in our database where revised mining codes and fiscal terms are reshaping risk premiums for operators across Mali, Burkina Faso and neighbouring jurisdictions.
Illegal mining at Newmont’s $4.8 billion Peru site, alongside coverage of Critical Metals having 75% of its planned output pre-sold, signals that high-value gold and critical metals assets in Latin America and Africa are simultaneously facing stronger price support and heightened security-of-tenure challenges, which project financiers are increasingly pricing into covenants and insurance structures.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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