Gold price back above $4,500: planning implications for mine projects
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold jumped more than 2% on Wednesday, with spot prices briefly touching $4,600/oz before consolidating around $4,500/oz, as a temporary halt to US military strikes on Iran and the prospect of talks to end the war eased recent Middle East risk. Silver tracked the move, rising to nearly $74/oz, while gold’s earlier nine-day losing streak had already wiped over 13% off prices as investors sold to cover losses and brace for higher rates. The World Gold Council still expects central banks to buy about 850 tonnes in 2026, after investment demand surged 84% in 2025 to a record 2,175 tonnes.
Technical Brief
- Spot gold’s intraday move peaked at $4,600/oz before retracing to trade around $4,500/oz.
- Silver followed with a synchronous spike, reaching almost $74/oz during the same trading session.
- UBS Global Wealth Management’s CIO Mark Haefele attributes recent weakness to reduced Middle East buying and rate expectations.
- Haefele characterises current levels as a tactical entry point, expecting some bearish drivers to reverse in coming months.
- World Gold Council forecasts central bank purchases of ~850 tonnes in 2026, roughly matching 2025 accumulation.
- WGC data show global gold investment demand in 2025 hit a record 2,175 tonnes, up 84% year-on-year.
- SP Angel links recent price volatility to a sharp influx, then exit, of speculative investment flows in 2025.
- Major banks such as JPMorgan have set forward gold targets above $6,000/oz, citing stronger private-sector investment interest.
Our Take
The World Gold Council’s forecast of 850 tonnes of central bank purchases this year lines up with our other WGC-tracked pieces showing central banks have already made gold their largest reserve asset class, which tends to dampen downside price risk for long-life projects in the USA and Canada.
JPMorgan’s earlier scenario work in our coverage, modelling gold at up to $8,000/oz by 2030, means that even with a recent 13% pullback, current price levels still sit within a bullish long-term band that can support marginal project economics and higher-cost underground operations like Boliden’s Garpenberg mine.
With silver at around $74/oz in this article and a prior spike above $113/oz in January coverage, silver-linked by-product credits at polymetallic operations (such as Garpenberg) become increasingly material to project cash flows and may influence mine plans more than in past price cycles.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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