Gold overtakes US bonds in reserves: price and demand signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset for the first time since 1996, with central bank gold holdings nearing $4 trillion versus roughly $3.9 trillion in US bonds, driven by a 70% surge in gold prices in 2025 and spot levels around $4,500/oz. The World Gold Council expects net official-sector purchases of about 1,000 tonnes in 2025, signalling sustained bullion demand despite record prices. Analysts link the shift to de-dollarisation and concerns over US fiscal sustainability and political polarisation.
Technical Brief
- World Gold Council data put foreign central-bank bullion near US$4 trillion versus about US$3.9 trillion in Treasuries.
- Foreign institutions last held more value in gold than US bonds in 1996, a 30‑year gap.
- Gold gained nearly 70% over calendar 2025, with an additional 3.6% rise in the first 2026 week.
- JP Morgan’s 2025 de‑dollarisation note links reserve shifts to US political polarisation and governance risk.
- Over the past four years, foreign central banks have accelerated bullion purchases to hedge US geopolitical exposure.
- Analysts emphasise gold’s lack of counterparty risk versus fiat assets when reserves face potential sanctions or asset freezes.
Our Take
The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook in our database already highlighted sustained central bank gold buying, so foreign reserves now favouring gold over US Treasuries reinforces a structural, not just cyclical, demand base for producers and developers.
With gold and silver appearing across 179 keyword‑matched pieces, this reweighting of reserves towards gold is likely to keep capital flowing to lower‑risk, brownfield precious‑metal projects in established jurisdictions such as the USA and African states mentioned here.
Anglo American’s 85% stake in De Beers and the $4.9 billion valuation, alongside Forevermark’s incremental retail expansion in India, suggest that while gold dominates reserve narratives, diamonds remain a consumer‑driven diversification play rather than a reserve asset theme for miners’ portfolios.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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