Gold, critical minerals and the trust premium: valuation signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold is being cast as the “apex predator” of a debt‑heavy financial system as central banks hold 27% of global reserves in bullion versus 22% in US Treasuries and continue annual purchases in the 800–1,000 tonne range. Speakers Grant Williams and Nomi Prins told the Rule Symposium that trust is shifting to assets governments cannot print, while commodity markets enter a “lockout” phase where control of processing, sulphuric acid supply, stockpiles and trade routes matters more than headline prices. China’s dominance in rare earth separation and its new export controls on MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, alongside US$400 million in US Department of Defense funding for Mountain Pass, signal that jurisdictional security and midstream capacity will heavily influence valuations of gold and critical mineral projects.
Technical Brief
- Washington’s 2025 critical minerals list now explicitly adds copper, silver and uranium to strategic supply.
- Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, following three consecutive years above 1,000 tonnes.
- Silver’s largest ETF can trade “tens of millions” of ounces daily against ~820 million oz/year mine output.
- Silver has run multi‑year physical deficits, indicating persistent drawdown of above‑ground stocks despite heavy paper trading.
- Copper price volatility has been damped by long‑dated utility offtake contracts, reducing the influence of short‑term paper markets.
- China recently restricted sulphuric acid exports, directly targeting a key reagent for copper leaching and hydrometallurgy.
- China’s dominance spans rare earth separation, processing and magnet manufacturing, exposing defence, power and EV supply chains.
- The US Department of Defense committed US$400 million to MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine, becoming its largest shareholder.
- China’s new export control list now specifically names MP Materials and USA Rare Earth as controlled counterparties.
- For project valuation, midstream control (reagents, separation, magnet plants, stockpiles) is becoming as material as ore grade.
Our Take
With gold now accounting for 27% of global reserves versus 22% for US Treasuries, reserve-heavy jurisdictions such as Europe and China are likely to keep anchoring long-life gold and silver projects in our database, while higher-cost copper and uranium assets face tougher financing screens.
Chile’s lithium export performance, flagged here as the best since 2023, reinforces that Andean lithium assets in our Mining–Projects coverage are being de-risked more by market pull than by permitting reforms, which may keep valuations robust even for brine projects with slower development timelines.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
Construction
Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.
CMRR-io
Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.
QCDB-io
Comprehensive quality control database for manufacturing, tunnelling, and civil construction with UCS testing, PSD analysis, and grout mix design management.
HYDROGEO-io
Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.