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    From Allende to Maduro: resource politics and mine restart risks for engineers

    January 6, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    From Allende to Maduro: resource politics and mine restart risks for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    From Chile’s 1971 copper nationalisation under Salvador Allende and creation of Codelco to the 2026 US “Operation Absolute Resolve” that captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, control of copper and oil has repeatedly triggered coups, sanctions and direct military intervention. Venezuela’s mining output has collapsed despite large reserves, with official gold production falling from 5.95 tonnes in 1999 to about 30 kg in 2023, iron ore from 14.1 Mt to 2.5 Mt, and bauxite from over 4 Mt to roughly 250,000 t. GEM’s Juan Ignacio Guzmán sees near-term opportunity in rehabilitating idle mines and plants within one to three years, contingent on power, infrastructure, sanctions relief and legal stability.

    Technical Brief

    • Allende’s 1971 copper nationalisation transferred Anaconda and Kennecott assets into newly created Codelco.
    • Chávez’s mid‑2000s oil reforms imposed tougher fiscal terms that pushed Exxon Mobil and other IOCs to exit.
    • USGS reported Venezuelan coal output at ~100,000 t in 2019 from 731 Mt of reserves.
    • Caracas targeted coal exports >10 Mt in 2025, but no verified production data confirm achievement.
    • Maduro and Delcy Rodríguez’s 2019 five‑year mining plan sought to substitute declining oil revenues with minerals.

    Our Take

    The focus on copper, nickel and other critical minerals in Chile and Venezuela sits against warnings in another recent piece that copper and nickel could face material shortfalls by the mid‑2030s, which would raise the strategic stakes of any future nationalisation or export restrictions in Latin America.

    Venezuela’s sharp decline in official gold, iron ore and bauxite output, despite sizeable coal reserves and a 2019 mining plan, contrasts with our broader project coverage where most Latin American producers are trying to de‑risk supply for critical minerals rather than expand exposure to bulk commodities like coal.

    The reference to Pakistani antimony concentrates links this op‑ed to growing attention on antimony in our database, where it increasingly appears alongside copper and rare earths in ‘critical minerals’ discussions, signalling that even relatively small tonnages can carry outsized geopolitical weight.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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