Copper price tops $12,000/t: supply, tariff and refining risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper prices surged to a record $12,159.50/t on the LME, up nearly 40% year-to-date, as mine outages across Chile, Indonesia and Peru combined with looming Trump-era tariff risks to trigger a global bidding war for physical units. Analysts at BloombergNEF warn the market could slip into deficit as early as 2026, with potential shortfalls reaching 19 Mt by 2050 without major new mines and recycling. SiTration CEO Brendan Smith and BNEF’s Kwasi Ampofo both flag refining bottlenecks—China controls over 45% of global refined output—as a critical geopolitical and project-delivery risk for copper developers.
Technical Brief
- Surge in US copper imports has diverted physical units, forcing non-US manufacturers into higher-priced spot purchases.
- Substitution into aluminium is occurring in some fabrication, but conductivity and mechanical limits constrain wider replacement.
- Elevated refined prices have materially increased scrap collection and processing, partially offsetting primary mine disruptions.
- Smelters and SXEW plants require multi‑billion‑dollar capex and long lead times, slowing regional diversification of processing capacity.
Our Take
Codelco’s prominence in this price piece lines up with several recent items in our database where its Chilean growth and smelting plans are timed around 2026, suggesting that today’s price strength could improve the economics and financing case for those expansions.
Benchmark Minerals appears both here and in our coverage of 2026 Chilean copper milestones, indicating that the same analytical frameworks underpinning the projected 2045–2050 demand surge are already being used to stress‑test near‑term project pipelines.
With China consuming about half of global copper and producing more than 45% of refined output, the 2026 deficit window in this article reinforces why new smelting capacity in Chile, such as the Codelco–Glencore MoU in our related coverage, is strategically framed as a partial hedge against over‑reliance on Chinese refining.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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