Copper price and decade‑low smelting activity: supply risks explained for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper for March delivery fell over 3% in New York to $5.78/lb ($12,740/t) as Earth‑i’s SAVANT index showed 14.3% of global copper smelting capacity inactive in January, the weakest level in nearly a decade and 6.8% above the three‑year average. Active capacity outside China is down 1.2 Mt year‑on‑year, driven by outages at Isabel Leyte (PASAR) in the Philippines, Gresik and Manyar in Indonesia after the Grasberg mud‑rush, and Salvador (Potrerillos) in Chile, while Africa’s inactivity jumped to 28.4%. Spot TCRCs have turned deeply negative near –$45/t and –4.5¢/lb, with Antofagasta’s 2026 benchmark TC/RC with a Chinese smelter settling at $0, effectively wiping out smelter margins and signalling further curtailments unless concentrate supply normalises.
Technical Brief
- Earth-i’s SAVANT satellites monitor ~95% of global copper smelting capacity, giving near‑real‑time outage visibility.
- January inactivity was the first double‑digit reading for that month in seven years, indicating atypical seasonal weakness.
- China, with 45% of tracked capacity, recorded only 7.5% inactive capacity, contrasting sharply with other regions’ curtailments.
- Asia–Oceania lost >850,000 t of active capacity year‑on‑year, despite being the only region with month‑on‑month gains.
- Gresik and Manyar smelters in Indonesia were forced offline after a Grasberg mud‑rush disrupted both mine and downstream operations.
- Salvador (Potrerillos) in Chile remains shut after a June 2025 chimney collapse, removing >100,000 t of South American capacity.
- Africa’s inactive capacity jumped 12.9 percentage points in January to 28.4%, the steepest relative monthly deterioration.
- Initial operating signals from the 500,000 t/y Kamoa‑Kakula smelter could eventually lift Africa’s active capacity to ~1.45 Mt.
Our Take
With copper at about $5.78/lb yet benchmark TC/RCs for 2026 reportedly set at zero for Antofagasta, our database suggests sustained margin pressure is likely to shift more risk onto concentrate producers and could accelerate mine cutbacks or grade‑selective mining in higher‑cost regions such as parts of Africa and Latin America.
The projected lift in African smelting capacity to around 1.45 Mt once the Kamoa‑Kakula smelter is fully online means more DRC cobalt‑copper units may be refined closer to mine‑gate, which typically reduces logistics bottlenecks but can complicate export regimes where fiscal codes still assume outbound concentrates.
Earth‑i’s satellite‑based SAVANT coverage of roughly 95% of global smelting capacity stands out in our copper coverage as one of the few near‑real‑time operational datasets, and operators increasingly use this type of feed to time maintenance shutdowns and concentrate contract negotiations against regional idle‑capacity spikes.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
CMRR-io
Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.
HYDROGEO-io
Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.
GEODB-io
Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.