Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Simplified.

© 2025 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy
    Projects

    Chile runoff and Codelco: project pipeline and capex risks for mine planners

    December 11, 2025|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Chile runoff and Codelco: project pipeline and capex risks for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Chile’s 14 December presidential runoff will decide how Jeannette Jara’s plan for a 10% increase in mining output, expanded state role in lithium and higher renewable penetration competes with José Antonio Kast’s $6 billion public spending cuts and lean-state agenda. Codelco, carrying more than $20 billion in debt after output fell to a 25‑year low in 2022 and still required to remit 70% of profits plus 10% of sales to the state, faces constrained reinvestment. Any policy misstep risks undermining Chile’s $105 billion mining investment pipeline to 2034 and global copper and lithium supply.

    Technical Brief

    • Production had only just begun recovering in 2024 after a 25‑year output low reached in 2022.
    • Ageing infrastructure across Codelco’s legacy divisions is flagged as a core constraint on sustaining nameplate capacity.
    • Legal remittances of 70% of profits plus 10% of sales structurally limit internal funding for brownfield upgrades.
    • Chile’s 2025 GDP forecast of 2.5% falls to near‑zero without mining, underscoring sectoral dependency.
    • Kast’s fiscal plan targets $6 billion cuts from an $82 billion national budget via broad state audits.
    • Jara’s industrial platform explicitly couples mining expansion with accelerated renewable power build‑out and state lithium participation.
    • Investors quoted frame the election as a “referendum” on balancing resource nationalism with foreign capital access.

    Our Take

    With Codelco already carrying more than $20 billion in debt while being obliged to transfer 70% of profits and 10% of sales to the state, any fiscal tightening to trim $6 billion from Chile’s $82 billion budget would likely constrain its ability to self-fund large brownfield and smelting upgrades.

    The recent MoU between Codelco and Glencore for a Chilean copper smelter capable of handling 1.5 million dry tonnes of concentrate suggests that whichever administration governs through 2030 will inherit a capital-intensive downstream build-out, not just decisions on mine output volumes.

    In our database of 265 mining stories, Codelco appears more frequently in relation to copper and critical minerals strategy than most other Latin American state miners, signalling that Chile’s electoral outcome will be watched as a bellwether for state-led copper and lithium policy across the region.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Metso Geminex™ digital twins: control and reliability insights for plant engineers
    Mining
    1 day ago

    Metso Geminex™ digital twins: control and reliability insights for plant engineers

    Metso is promoting its Geminex™ digital twin platform as a way to move mineral processing plant control beyond traditional DCS screens towards predictive and proactive maintenance. Geminex™ integrates real-time sensor data with dynamic process models of grinding, flotation and filtration circuits to simulate plant behaviour, test “what‑if” scenarios and optimise setpoints before implementation. For operators, this signals deeper use of virtual commissioning, remote performance tuning and model-based failure prediction across comminution and concentrator lines.

    Fortescue’s electric locomotive in the Pilbara: performance notes for mine planners
    Mining
    2 days ago

    Fortescue’s electric locomotive in the Pilbara: performance notes for mine planners

    Fortescue has received two Progress Rail EMD SD70J‑BB battery-electric locomotives, described as the world’s largest, for deployment on its heavy-haul iron ore network in the Pilbara. The units are designed for 100 per cent battery operation, integrating regenerative braking on long downhill runs from mine to port to recharge onboard packs and cut diesel use. For rail and mine planners, the key question will be how these high-mass, high-axle-load locomotives perform on existing Pilbara track geometry, gradients and maintenance regimes.

    Maritime logistics in the critical minerals race: supply-chain notes for mine planners
    Mining
    2 days ago

    Maritime logistics in the critical minerals race: supply-chain notes for mine planners

    Beijing’s April export controls on seven rare earth elements, followed by a now-suspended October expansion covering additional REEs, magnets and lithium battery materials, have forced Western buyers to reroute critical minerals via longer, chokepoint-heavy sea lanes such as the Red Sea and primary canals. Trading houses including BGN Group, Traxys and Gerald Group are acting as integrated maritime logistics platforms, combining shallow, infrastructure-poor African and Latin American load ports with highly automated deepwater hubs using mixed fleets of smaller bulk, multipurpose and VLGC-capable vessels. Global container lines like Maersk and Evergreen, which has ordered 14 LNG dual-fuel containerships for Asia–Europe, now directly influence lead times, freight costs and emissions for lithium chemicals, magnet alloys and battery intermediates moving to refineries and OEMs in Europe, North America and allied Asia.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    Construction

    Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.