BMI’s 2026 critical minerals scramble: capex and offtake cues for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, projects most mineral and metal prices will edge higher in 2026 as net‑zero demand, tight supply and an intensifying race for copper, lithium and rare earths outweigh Mainland China’s weak property sector. Industrial policy in the US and EU will focus on domestic mining/processing plus overseas offtake deals, while Beijing accelerates exploration, expands battery and rare earth capacity and uses tariffs and export controls to reinforce value‑chain dominance. Strong M&A, phased brownfield capex and tougher fiscal terms in African frontier markets will shape where mining capital goes next.
Technical Brief
- BMI expects gold to average higher in 2026 than 2025, before softening late‑year.
- Late‑2026 gold easing is linked to a slowdown in global monetary easing and Fed rate cuts ending.
- Mainland China’s property slump is explicitly flagged as continuing to cap base‑metal price upside.
- Beijing’s response includes accelerated exploration plus targeted capacity expansions in battery and rare earth minerals.
- China is also promoting “greener manufacturing” while tightening outbound investment rules for resource‑rich economies.
- Recent Chinese rare earth export controls and tariffs are cited as ongoing protectionist tools in mineral supply chains.
- BMI notes M&A will stay focused on increasing exposure to copper, lithium and rare earth elements.
- Brownfield and phased capex projects are favoured over large greenfield builds to manage cost and policy risk.
- African frontier markets are expected to push tougher fiscal terms as local bargaining power over mineral endowments grows.
- BMI flags supply bottlenecks for AI, robotics and defence as a driver for mine‑site offtake partnerships with tech, auto and aerospace firms.
Our Take
BMI and Fitch Solutions have been progressively revising up price outlooks across several critical minerals – the recent 2026 tin forecast upgrade in our coverage signals that the same demand‑security logic may underpin their 2026 views on copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths.
With the US, EU and China all named in this piece, operators in Africa and Latin America targeting battery metals and rare earth elements are likely to see more M&A‑driven competition for advanced projects rather than pure greenfield risk‑taking, as buyers race to lock in secure supply before 2026.
Among the 16 keyword‑matched critical minerals stories in our database, very few tie price forecasts explicitly to US Federal Reserve policy, so this linkage here suggests developers of copper, lithium and cobalt projects should be stress‑testing economics against both demand scenarios and higher‑for‑longer funding costs into 2026.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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