Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Simplified.

© 2025 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy
    Projects

    BMI’s 2026 critical minerals scramble: capex and offtake cues for mine planners

    December 8, 2025|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    BMI’s 2026 critical minerals scramble: capex and offtake cues for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, projects most mineral and metal prices will edge higher in 2026 as net‑zero demand, tight supply and an intensifying race for copper, lithium and rare earths outweigh Mainland China’s weak property sector. Industrial policy in the US and EU will focus on domestic mining/processing plus overseas offtake deals, while Beijing accelerates exploration, expands battery and rare earth capacity and uses tariffs and export controls to reinforce value‑chain dominance. Strong M&A, phased brownfield capex and tougher fiscal terms in African frontier markets will shape where mining capital goes next.

    Technical Brief

    • BMI expects gold to average higher in 2026 than 2025, before softening late‑year.
    • Late‑2026 gold easing is linked to a slowdown in global monetary easing and Fed rate cuts ending.
    • Mainland China’s property slump is explicitly flagged as continuing to cap base‑metal price upside.
    • Beijing’s response includes accelerated exploration plus targeted capacity expansions in battery and rare earth minerals.
    • China is also promoting “greener manufacturing” while tightening outbound investment rules for resource‑rich economies.
    • Recent Chinese rare earth export controls and tariffs are cited as ongoing protectionist tools in mineral supply chains.
    • BMI notes M&A will stay focused on increasing exposure to copper, lithium and rare earth elements.
    • Brownfield and phased capex projects are favoured over large greenfield builds to manage cost and policy risk.
    • African frontier markets are expected to push tougher fiscal terms as local bargaining power over mineral endowments grows.
    • BMI flags supply bottlenecks for AI, robotics and defence as a driver for mine‑site offtake partnerships with tech, auto and aerospace firms.

    Our Take

    BMI and Fitch Solutions have been progressively revising up price outlooks across several critical minerals – the recent 2026 tin forecast upgrade in our coverage signals that the same demand‑security logic may underpin their 2026 views on copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths.

    With the US, EU and China all named in this piece, operators in Africa and Latin America targeting battery metals and rare earth elements are likely to see more M&A‑driven competition for advanced projects rather than pure greenfield risk‑taking, as buyers race to lock in secure supply before 2026.

    Among the 16 keyword‑matched critical minerals stories in our database, very few tie price forecasts explicitly to US Federal Reserve policy, so this linkage here suggests developers of copper, lithium and cobalt projects should be stress‑testing economics against both demand scenarios and higher‑for‑longer funding costs into 2026.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Mining drives Indigenous business growth: procurement lessons for project teams
    Mining
    about 11 hours ago

    Mining drives Indigenous business growth: procurement lessons for project teams

    Total procurement spend with Indigenous-owned businesses has reached $5.83 billion, with mining and resources now the largest single driver of demand for Supply Nation–registered suppliers. The State of the Indigenous Business report points to major contracts in mine site services, civil works and haulage as key growth areas, with Tier 1 miners increasingly using mandated Indigenous participation targets in procurement panels. For engineers and project managers, this signals more joint ventures, Indigenous subcontracting on bulk earthworks and haul road construction, and tighter reporting on Indigenous spend.

    Australian Power Equipment underground electrification: design and safety notes for mine engineers
    Mining
    about 12 hours ago

    Australian Power Equipment underground electrification: design and safety notes for mine engineers

    Australian Power Equipment is designing mine-wide electrical ecosystems for underground electrification, supplying modular substations, flameproof switchgear and high-voltage distribution tailored to remote, hot and dusty headings. Co-directors Andrew Cockbain and Abby Crawford emphasise integration of variable-speed drives, soft starters and real-time protection relays to manage high inrush currents from battery-electric loaders and jumbo chargers. The approach focuses on IEC-compliant, arc-fault-contained enclosures and condition monitoring to cut unplanned outages and support staged transition from diesel to fully electric fleets.

    Graphite and Australia’s battery market: supply chain notes for mine planners
    Mining
    about 12 hours ago

    Graphite and Australia’s battery market: supply chain notes for mine planners

    A new report on Australia’s battery supply chain positions graphite as a strategic material for lithium‑ion anodes, noting that graphite makes up most of the active material in current EV battery chemistries. The analysis points to Australia’s existing natural graphite resources and emerging synthetic graphite projects as a way to reduce reliance on Chinese processing capacity, which currently dominates anode production. For miners and processors, the report signals growing scrutiny of flake size distribution, impurity control and downstream spherical graphite and coating capacity as key value drivers.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    Construction

    Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    QCDB-io

    Comprehensive quality control database for manufacturing, tunnelling, and civil construction with UCS testing, PSD analysis, and grout mix design management.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.