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    BHP’s new CEO Craig: copper growth, Jansen logistics and capex lens for engineers

    March 18, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    BHP’s new CEO Craig: copper growth, Jansen logistics and capex lens for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    BHP’s promotion of Americas president Brandon Craig to CEO from 1 July signals a deeper pivot to copper, with the metal now contributing 51% of first-half profit and production of about 2 million tonnes a year across Chile, Peru and South Australia. The miner is targeting 2.5 million tonnes a year of copper equivalent by FY2035, including 1.4 million tonnes from Escondida and Pampa Norte, while advancing the high-altitude Vicuña district with Lundin Mining and the Resolution project in Arizona with Rio Tinto. Craig must balance roughly $20 billion of copper and potash projects, cost-challenged Jansen potash logistics over 1,700 km to Canada’s west coast, and tightening Chinese ore-grade restrictions against a stated “incredibly compelling” hurdle for further mega-deals.

    Technical Brief

    • The Jansen development has already incurred multiple cost blowouts and schedule delays under Henry’s tenure.
    • Around $20 billion of capital is earmarked specifically for copper and potash growth projects in the pipeline.
    • BHP returned about $80 billion to shareholders during Henry’s term while funding these large projects.
    • Anglo American takeover attempts totalled $49 billion and failed twice, sharpening scrutiny on future mega-deals.
    • Craig previously ran BHP’s iron ore business through the pandemic, driving efficiency in its highest-margin segment.
    • He is openly critical of Australian energy, labour and tax settings, citing Queensland coal royalties as destabilising.
    • Americas jurisdictions flagged as investment priorities include Chile, Argentina, the US and Canada, with Australia omitted.
    • BHP is negotiating with state-backed China Mineral Resources Group amid reported restrictions on certain iron ore grades.
    • Any future M&A must be “incredibly compelling” versus organic copper and potash options, signalling tighter capital filters.

    Our Take

    The Resolution Copper JV with Rio Tinto in Arizona, which has just cleared a key US Forest Service land-exchange hurdle in related reporting, gives BHP a major US copper growth lever that can partially offset China demand and pricing risk highlighted in this CEO transition piece.

    Across the 1088 mining stories in our database, relatively few combine large-scale potash (Jansen) and copper growth in the Americas the way BHP does, suggesting Craig’s capital-discipline challenge is less about finding Tier 1 options and more about sequencing spend across multiple long-dated, high-capex builds.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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