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    Barrick’s Reko Diq delay: capex, schedule and risk takeaways for mine planners

    March 27, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Barrick’s Reko Diq delay: capex, schedule and risk takeaways for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Barrick Mining will slow development of the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and extend its review by 12 months from July, citing heightened security risks linked to the Iran conflict. Phase 1 capex is estimated above US$5.6 billion for a deposit holding about 15 million tonnes of copper reserves, with the mine previously targeted to start up in 2028. The project is forecast to deliver roughly US$90 billion in operating cash flow over a 37-year life, making the delay significant for long-term copper supply planning.

    Technical Brief

    • Review period for Reko Diq extended a further 12 months from July, delaying key design and procurement decisions.
    • Security risk escalation linked explicitly to the Iran conflict is now a primary gating constraint on project execution.
    • Barrick’s internal review scope covers “all aspects” of the project, including capital allocation and delivery strategy optimisation.
    • Reko Diq is being advanced through a partnership structure with both the federal government of Pakistan and the Balochistan provincial government.
    • Barrick’s market capitalisation of about US$67 billion frames Reko Diq as a single, very large-asset exposure within its portfolio.
    • Company guidance distinguishes between operating cash flow (~US$90 billion) and free cash flow (>US$70 billion) over the 37‑year life, implying substantial sustaining and financing outflows.
    • The deposit’s estimated 15 million tonnes of copper reserves position it among the largest undeveloped copper-gold systems globally, influencing long-term supply modelling.
    • For other Tier‑1 scale projects in politically sensitive belts, similar security-driven review extensions could materially shift commissioning windows and capital sequencing.

    Our Take

    In our database of 1,141 mining stories, only a subset of copper‑tagged projects combine more than 15 million tonnes of copper reserves with a $5.6 billion‑plus initial phase cost, putting Reko Diq in the same strategic tier as Barrick’s largest growth options and explaining why any schedule slippage is closely watched by investors around its $67 billion market capitalisation.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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