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    Banks bullish on gold price: cost, output and margin outlook for mine planners

    January 6, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Banks bullish on gold price: cost, output and margin outlook for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Gold’s best annual performance since 1979, with a 65% gain and a Boxing Day peak of $4,549.71/oz, has prompted Morgan Stanley to project a rise to $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, driven by falling rates, possible Fed leadership change and sustained central bank and fund buying. Bank of America, led by metals head Michael Widmer, expects 2026 gold to average $4,538/oz, with North American mine output from 13 majors slipping 2% to 19.2 Moz and all‑in sustaining costs rising 3% to about $1,600/oz. Widmer also sees silver between $135–$309/oz based on a gold‑silver ratio now around 59, while Morgan Stanley flags upside for silver, aluminium and copper amid Chinese export licence constraints, industrial demand and ongoing copper supply disruptions.

    Technical Brief

    • Bank of America’s gold outlook assumes tightening market conditions and higher earnings sensitivity for producers.
    • Widmer’s team models 2026 North American output from 13 major gold miners at 19.2 Moz.
    • Those 19.2 Moz represent a 2% year‑on‑year production decline for the same cohort of majors.
    • Average all‑in sustaining costs for these majors are forecast to rise 3% to about $1,600/oz.
    • Silver ended 2025 near $80/oz after gaining over 140% during the year.
    • Widmer’s silver target range of $135–$309/oz is derived from historic gold‑silver ratio lows.
    • Current gold‑silver ratio around 59 is compared with historical troughs of 32 (2011) and 14 (1980).

    Our Take

    With 487 Mining stories and 169 keyword-matched pieces on gold and silver in our database, this is one of the more aggressive price decks seen, which is likely to push marginal North American gold projects closer to investment thresholds even with a projected 3% rise in average AISC.

    The forecast 2% decline to 19.2 Moz of 2026 output from 13 major North American gold miners suggests that any permitting or technical delays at new projects could tighten supply just as banks like Morgan Stanley and BofA are signalling much higher price environments.

    BofA’s wide silver price target band, combined with a current gold-to-silver ratio of 59 versus historical lows of 32 and 14, implies significant optionality for polymetallic gold–silver projects in the Americas, where mine plans and offtake strategies can be flexed towards whichever metal outperforms by 2025–26.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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