Antofagasta 2026 copper targets: production, cost and capex lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Antofagasta’s first-quarter copper production fell 8% year-on-year to 143,000 tonnes due to lower processing rates and weaker grades at two concentrators, but net cash costs dropped 30% to $1.08/lb and 2026 guidance of 650,000–700,000 tonnes at $1.15–1.35/lb by-product cash cost remains unchanged. Capex guidance stays at $3.4 billion, with the Centinela second concentrator in pre-commissioning and Los Pelambres expected to lift output via higher ore throughput and improving grades. The miner is monitoring rising imported sulphuric acid prices linked to a Strait of Hormuz blockage while evaluating early-stage copper options in Argentina and the US.
Technical Brief
- Net cash cost assumptions hinge on fuel prices reverting to January pre-conflict levels in Q2.
- Input cost pressure is currently dominated by imported sulphuric acid, diesel and adverse foreign exchange moves.
- Centinela’s second concentrator remains “on schedule”, with pre-commissioning already under way on key systems.
- Los Pelambres’ quarter-on-quarter uplift is expected from both higher ore processing rates and grade improvement.
- Gold output reached 46,500 oz, driven by stronger grades despite reduced plant throughput.
- Molybdenum production held around 3,000 tonnes, providing stable by-product credits for unit cost control.
- The Strait of Hormuz blockage has materially increased sulphuric acid prices, a critical reagent for Chilean leaching circuits.
- Early-stage growth options under review include potential collaboration around Glencore’s El Pachón project in Argentina.
- US copper growth is constrained by slow permitting; potential lifting of a Minnesota mining ban is a key enabler.
Our Take
With net cash costs at $1.08/lb and guidance of $1.15–1.35/lb Cu, Antofagasta sits in the lower half of the cost curve in our copper coverage, which gives projects like Los Pelambres and the Centinela second concentrator more resilience if prices soften as suggested in the March 2026 copper-demand scenario piece tied to Strait of Hormuz risks.
The 8% gold output increase alongside copper in Chile provides a meaningful by-product hedge; in our database, Antofagasta is one of the few Latin American copper names where gold and molybdenum credits are consistently highlighted as key to maintaining competitive net cash costs.
Antofagasta’s reiterated 2026 growth goals align with its later FY2025 disclosure that fleet autonomy is central to scaling Centinela, signalling that the current $3.4 billion capex phase is likely to be accompanied by further productivity and labour-flexibility gains rather than purely adding nameplate capacity.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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