Central banks have doubled their gold purchases to an average 1,000 tonnes per year over the past four years, with a World Gold Council survey of 76 institutions showing 89% expect global official holdings to rise and 45% plan to add to their own reserves. Speaking at the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, senior market strategist Joseph Cavatoni framed the move as a structural response to sanctions, inflation and credit risk in paper currencies. The deeper, policy-driven demand base could underpin bullion prices, but miners still need to convert higher prices into disciplined production, cash flow and managed political and operating risk.

Copper climbed 1.3% on Comex to $6.35/lb (just under $14,000/t), within 5% of its early-June record, as China’s import premium hit $100/t for the first time since May 2025 and Shanghai exchange stocks fell 20% last week to 79,909 t, down 45% year-to-date. Tightness is being driven by Beijing’s VAT crackdown on the “invoice economy”, pushing substitution from scrap into cathode and drawing metal out of LME warehouses despite record 630,293 t in Comex storage. On the supply side, storms cut South32’s payable output at Sierra Gorda to 16,000 t for the June quarter, Antofagasta’s H1 production dropped 9.5% to 285,000 t with cash costs guided up to $2.40–$2.60/lb, and Codelco halted surface operations at Andina and shipments from El Teniente.

Silver futures rebounded 1.5% to $56.74/oz on Comex after hitting an eight‑month low of $55.50, while gold slipped 0.3% to $4,005/oz, holding just above the $4,000 support level that veteran analyst John Gross pegs as critical alongside $55/oz silver, with the next support near $50. The gold–silver ratio eased to just under 71, Chinese wholesale gold demand and ETFs remain near decade‑low levels despite 20 consecutive months of PBoC buying, and Indian silver import restrictions have pushed local dealer premiums to $6.50/oz. Swap markets now fully price at least one further Fed hike this year as the US‑Iran conflict keeps oil and US gasoline above $4/gal, raising macro risk for precious‑metal‑exposed miners such as Newmont, Barrick, Pan American Silver, Coeur and Hecla, several of which are trading at less than half their 52‑week highs.