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    Coal mine plans grow as new capacity plunges: risk signals for project teams

    August 14, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Coal mine plans grow as new capacity plunges: risk signals for project teams

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Proposed global coal mining capacity rose 11% in 2025, driven mainly by India where the project pipeline doubled as the government targets 1.15 billion tonnes of coal production in 2025–26 to cover peak power demand and energy security. In contrast, commissioning of new coal capacity fell almost 40%, with China’s additions down 44% amid tighter mine approvals and safety rules, and Australia’s new capacity plunging 96% as export demand weakens. Around 70% of proposed mines remain at pre-permit or construction stage, leaving significant scope for cancellations before capital is sunk into potentially uneconomic long-life assets.

    Technical Brief

    • Wind and solar overtook coal in the global electricity mix in 2025, altering long‑term baseload assumptions for new mines.
    • China’s slowdown is explicitly linked to tighter mine safety measures and more restrictive approvals for capacity expansions.
    • Australian capacity additions are additionally constrained by a proposed ban on new greenfield coal mines.
    • Around 70% of proposed coal projects being pre‑permit or under construction implies high exposure to permitting, ESG and financing risk.
    • GEM warns that new coal mines risk becoming long‑lived, stranded assets as clean energy undercuts coal on marginal generation cost.

    Our Take

    Global Energy Monitor’s coal work here sits alongside its role in the critical-minerals gap analysis covered on 11 August 2026, signalling that the same datasets the IEA is using to flag lithium and copper shortfalls are also underpinning concerns about stranded coal capacity in India, China and Australia.

    With 70% of proposed coal projects in India, China and Australia still at pre-permit or construction stage, operators and lenders face a materially higher risk that policy shifts aligned with the IEA’s post‑2030 coal demand decline will freeze projects before payback, compared with fully permitted brownfield expansions.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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