Copper prices just below $14,000/ton in London, around $500 off January’s record, are drawing sharply higher forecasts from Goldman Sachs at $13,735/ton by year-end and Citigroup at $14,500/ton this month and $15,000 within a year. Goldman has cut its global mine supply outlook by 350,000 tons after major incidents at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), with both mines unlikely to reach full capacity before 2028. The bank now sees the ex-US copper deficit jumping to 640,000 tons, driven by stronger US imports, tight inventories and electrification demand, with Citi adding tariff risk on refined copper to the bullish case.

USA Rare Earth will invest $1.2 billion in a rare earth metals and NdFeB magnet plant at Bailey Industrial Park, Blacksburg, South Carolina, targeting 6,400 tpa of sintered NdFeB magnets and 5,000 tpa of strip-cast metal and alloy, with commissioning from 2028. Together with an expanded Stillwater, Oklahoma facility, US domestic capacity is expected to reach 10,000 tpa of NdFeB magnets and 10,000 tpa of heavy rare earth strip-cast metal and alloy, fed by the Round Top project in Texas and the proposed Serra Verde acquisition in Brazil. The vertically integrated mine-to-magnet chain faces regulatory scrutiny in Brazil, a contested $1.58 billion CHIPS-backed funding package, and a technology theft lawsuit from MP Materials.

Glencore’s Cerrejón mine in La Guajira, one of the world’s largest open-pit coal operations, has halted mining, rail and port activities and declared force majeure after a community blockade cut fuel and coal movements on the railway to Puerto Bolívar from 23 May. Cerrejón, which produced 16.8 Mt in 2025 and has faced nearly 80 blockades this year (333 in 2024, plus nine terrorist attacks), has suspended most employment contracts while maintaining staff for maintenance and environmental controls. The dispute centres on constitutional rulings, water access, renewable energy projects and royalty distribution, signalling persistent social and regulatory risk for Colombian coal, whose national output fell to 53.9 Mt in 2025.