US minerals push and China’s grip: project and supply risks for engineers
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Washington’s post-2025 critical minerals strategy is now backing more than 180 projects with tools such as equity stakes, loans, offtake guarantees and price floors, including $7.6 billion in non-equity support for rare earth and magnet projects in the 18 months to June. The Pentagon has taken $400 million in preferred shares and a $150-million loan in MP Materials, while guaranteeing a $110/kg neodymium-praseodymium floor price and magnet offtake from a second Texas plant, and the Department of Energy has issued a $2.23-billion loan plus warrants for Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass. A conditional $725-million loan to Energy Fuels and over two dozen mineral agreements with partners from Australia to the DRC signal a deliberate build-out of non-Chinese mining, separation and refining capacity, with CRU projecting Chinese market share erosion by 2030.
Technical Brief
- Pentagon support to MP Materials couples $400m preferred equity with a separate $150m debt facility.
- MP’s second Texas plant gains a guaranteed outlet for finished magnets, de-risking downstream processing investment.
- Thacker Pass ownership is split 62% Lithium Americas and 38% General Motors within the project JV.
- Department of Energy holds warrants equal to 5% of Lithium Americas plus a separate 5% non-voting JV stake.
- Energy Fuels’ conditional $725m loan is earmarked for both mine output expansion and onshore separation/refining.
- Washington has signed 20+ mineral-development agreements spanning Australia, Japan, Brazil, Argentina, Uzbekistan and the DRC.
- USA Rare Earth, Korea Zinc and Sunrise Energy Metals are specifically named in the US-backed transaction pipeline.
- CRU expects Chinese market share losses by 2030 in several currently dominant mining, separation and refining segments.
Our Take
The $7.6 billion in U.S. non‑equity support for rare earth and magnet projects, combined with the $2.23 billion DOE loan to Thacker Pass, effectively underwrites long‑life capex for lithium and rare earths in the USA, which is likely to put cost pressure on unfunded projects in countries like Argentina and Brazil that lack comparable state-backed financing in our coverage.
Linking critical minerals policy to operational risk, the same 29 September 2026 date appears on a separate piece about a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine, underscoring how labour or social disruptions in Chilean copper can reinforce U.S. arguments for onshoring or ‘friend-shoring’ copper and other critical minerals supply.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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