Mining’s future hinges on global cooperation: scenario insights for project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
A new Systemic and ERM scenario report for ICMM, funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, models three pathways for mining and metals to 2050, with copper demand varying by up to 30% and major swings in water use, mine count and deforestation. The “Flywheel” scenario assumes globally connected supply chains, streamlined permitting and verified low‑impact operations, yielding 18% higher copper demand with 35% lower water consumption, 18% fewer mines and 25% less deforestation. In contrast, a fragmented “Fracture” world drives 70% higher water use, 25% more mines and 40% more deforestation, while a “Space Race” tech‑driven bloc system keeps copper demand high but trims deforestation by 3%.
Technical Brief
- Scenario design by Systemic and ERM explicitly links governance choices, technology adoption and international co‑operation to quantified copper, water, mine-count and deforestation outcomes.
- Governance levers assessed include degree of state intervention, permitting timelines, transparency of markets and verification of low‑impact performance for access to capital.
- Technological variables span innovation rates, deployment of advanced extraction and processing, and differential uptake between regions under competing geopolitical blocs.
- Operationally, the scenarios are intended as stress‑tests for portfolio strategy, permitting pipelines, water management and land‑take planning to 2050.
- Independent miners are explicitly modelled as more vulnerable under high state control and low‑innovation conditions, with reduced private investment flows.
- Space Race assumes state-directed R&D funding to secure domestic supply chains, creating heterogeneous environmental performance between advanced and lagging regions.
- Authors emphasise that scenarios are exploratory, not predictive; real‑world outcomes could be more extreme or mixed than the three stylised cases.
Our Take
The 18–30% copper demand uplift by 2050 in the Flywheel and Fracture scenarios aligns with other copper-tagged pieces in our database that already flag long-lead assets like Salobo in Pará and Saskatchewan potash as strategic bottlenecks for grid and EV build-out.
Scenario spreads on water use (from 35% lower to 70% higher by 2050) are particularly material for regions such as Carajás and Saskatchewan, where our coverage shows mounting scrutiny of water-intensive copper and potash operations in permitting and licence renewals.
The deforestation deltas modelled out to 2050 are notable because Carajás/Pará appears repeatedly in our sustainability-tagged mining stories, suggesting that operators around assets like Salobo may face tighter land-use constraints just as copper demand accelerates.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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