Haywood cuts gold forecasts: valuation and project signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Haywood Securities has cut its 2026 gold and silver forecasts to US$4,345/oz (from US$4,906) and US$67.11/oz (from US$73.40) after a 14% Q2 gold price drop and an 18% fall in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, yet argues senior producers at 7.83x next-12‑month cash flow still look attractive versus a 5‑year average of 8.86x. Equinox Gold remains its top producer pick, with the Orla Mining merger expected to create a ~1.1 Moz/y North America‑focused producer and a path towards 2 Moz/y by 2031. Among developers, Haywood favours First Mining Gold’s now federally approved Springpole project, Thesis Gold & Silver’s Lawyers Ranch PFS in B.C.’s Toodoggone district, and Troilus Mining’s 303,000 oz Au‑eq/y project with a 70 MW power allocation and an estimated after‑tax NPV5 of about US$5.3 billion and 29% IRR.
Technical Brief
- Haywood also trimmed its 2027 gold forecast to US$4,000/oz, down from US$5,000/oz.
- Gold’s 14% Q2 price drop was attributed to higher bond yields, stronger US dollar and profit‑taking.
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF underperformed bullion with an 18% Q2 decline, widening equity–metal valuation gaps.
- Springpole’s federal environmental approval drove First Mining’s target price increase from US$1.25 to US$1.75.
- Duparquet is flagged as a “company-maker”‑scale secondary asset within First Mining’s portfolio, not yet fully priced.
- Troilus’ secured 70 MW power allocation leverages existing site and transport infrastructure at the past‑producing operation.
Our Take
Haywood’s cut to 2026 silver and gold price forecasts contrasts sharply with the 40% bullion and 155% VanEck Gold Miners ETF surge described in the 2025 performance piece, underlining how quickly sentiment and valuation multiples for senior producers can swing around relatively modest changes in long-term price decks.
The implied scale of a combined Equinox Gold–Orla Mining producer at about 1.1 Moz/y, with a pipeline towards 2 Moz/y by 2031, would move it into the same output bracket as several mid-tier names tracked in our gold producer rankings, which typically see stronger trading liquidity and lower cost of capital than single-asset developers such as First Mining Gold or Thesis Gold & Silver.
Troilus Mining’s after-tax NPV of US$5.3 billion at a 5% discount rate and 29% IRR, supported by a 70 MW power allocation, places it at the upper end of Canadian project economics in our database, suggesting that even under trimmed gold price assumptions it could remain competitive against other B.C. and Quebec projects like Spanish Mountain in attracting construction financing.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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