Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In
Built byBoxcut Studio

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects
    Sustainability

    Energy transition minerals crunch by 2035: capacity and risk notes for mine planners

    October 16, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Energy transition minerals crunch by 2035: capacity and risk notes for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Projected mine and processing capacity will cover only 68% of lithium demand, 74% of cobalt and 75% of copper by 2035, with GEM Mining Consulting’s new Volume Scarcity Index scoring lithium at 80/100 for tightness. GEM’s parallel Supply Chain Fragility Index rates rare earth magnets at 95/100 and battery-grade graphite at 89/100 because refining and magnet production are heavily concentrated in China, with diversified rare earth magnet capacity outside China meeting just 15% of global demand. The firm estimates a nominal 100,000 t/y project typically yields only about 60,200 t/y of reliable, qualified output once permitting delays, ramp-up losses, metallurgical recoveries and customer specifications are factored in.

    Technical Brief

    • GEM’s “reserve relevance” chain requires deposits to be financed, permitted, extracted, processed, qualified and delivered.
    • Supply Chain Fragility Index incorporates processing concentration, technological dependence and geographic risk into a single score.
    • Nickel’s fragility score of 66 is linked to processing concentration in Indonesia and China.
    • Copper’s relatively low fragility score of 36 contrasts with its projected physical supply deficit.
    • GEM’s 100,000 t/y nameplate example falls to 60,200 t/y after cumulative development and operating losses.
    • Loss drivers include permitting/financing delays, slow ramp-up to nameplate and sub‑100% metallurgical recoveries.
    • Additional derating occurs where plant output fails to meet tight chemical/technical specifications of battery and magnet customers.
    • GEM argues smaller deposits with proven processing routes and offtake can be strategically superior to larger, unqualified resources.

    Our Take

    The same GEM Mining Consulting work cited here underpins the 11 August 2026 brief in our database, which stresses that the 68–75% lithium, cobalt and copper coverage to 2035 is after factoring in typical project slippage, so planners should treat these gaps as post-risk, not optimistic, numbers.

    With rare earth magnets showing 107% notional 2035 coverage but a 95/100 fragility score and only 15% diversified supply outside China, OEMs in Europe and the USA are likely to prioritise localisation of magnet manufacturing rather than raw ore projects alone.

    The 20%-plus gold price drop since the start of the US–Iran war, combined with copper’s 62/100 scarcity index, reinforces a pattern in our coverage where gold-heavy portfolios are underperforming relative to copper- and battery-metal-focused miners in capital-allocation discussions.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Minnova’s C$76M PL gold mine restart: economics and strip risks for engineers
    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Minnova’s C$76M PL gold mine restart: economics and strip risks for engineers

    Minnova plans a C$76.2 million restart of the brownfield PL gold mine near Sherridon, Manitoba, targeting 62,200 oz per year over 10 years from a high‑grade open pit feeding an existing 1,000 t/d plant, which is slated to double to 2,000 t/d in year two. The September resource stands at 3.76 million measured and indicated tonnes at 4.98 g/t Au (601,158 oz) plus 1.67 million inferred tonnes at 3.78 g/t (202,810 oz), with open pits carrying a high 21:1 waste‑to‑ore strip ratio. At US$3,000/oz gold, the PEA projects an after‑tax NPV5 of US$180.6 million, 111% IRR, eight‑month payback and all‑in sustaining costs of US$2,288/oz, but value falls sharply at lower prices, underlining cost and strip sensitivity.

    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Caterpillar Resource Industries leadership shift: fleet and autonomy cues for miners

    Caterpillar has confirmed that Denise Johnson, Group President of Resource Industries since 2016 and a key figure in expanding autonomous haulage and large mining truck platforms, will retire on 1 February 2027. Derrick York, currently President of Solar Turbines and a Caterpillar Senior Vice President overseeing industrial gas turbines and compressor sets, will become Group President of Resource Industries on 1 November 2026, with Johnson shifting to an advisory role. The handover timetable gives miners nearly a year of overlap to align major fleet, autonomy and support contracts with the incoming leadership.

    Anglo American copper scarcity and tech tie-ups: key takeaways for mine planners
    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Anglo American copper scarcity and tech tie-ups: key takeaways for mine planners

    Tech companies are in talks to buy equity in Anglo American to secure long-term copper and other data centre metals, as Comex copper trades near $6.52/lb and LME cash copper recently hit a record $14,822/t. Anglo’s planned merger with Teck Resources would create a roughly $90 billion group producing about 1.2 million tonnes of copper per year, controlling around 5% of global supply, but is still awaiting Chinese antitrust clearance tied to concentrate flows to local smelters. Wanblad also warned Anglo may close its Brazilian nickel operations at Codemin and Barro Alto if the EU blocks the $500 million sale to MMG despite proposed long-term European ferronickel supply commitments.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    Construction

    Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    QCDB-io

    Comprehensive quality control database for manufacturing, tunnelling, and civil construction with UCS testing, PSD analysis, and grout mix design management.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental