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    Digital gold could triple by 2031: WGC outlook and custody design notes

    October 20, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Digital gold could triple by 2031: WGC outlook and custody design notes

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Digital gold holdings could reach US$160–170 billion by 2031, up from US$45–55 billion today, bringing an estimated US$95 billion in new money into bullion if providers solve trust and access issues, according to a World Gold Council–Boston Consulting Group model based on 12,000 investors in 12 countries. Vaulted accounts currently make up 89% of the digital market, with adoption up to seven times higher where products are integrated into banking or payment apps, and awareness ranging from 76% in Indonesia to 19% in Canada. The Council plans a shared “Gold as a Service” infrastructure to standardise sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption, addressing concerns such as single-location physical redemption and 400-oz. minimum delivery thresholds.

    Technical Brief

    • Vaulted accounts currently supply 89% of digital gold exposure, with tokenised products providing the balance.
    • Survey base covered 12,000+ retail investors across 12 countries, extrapolated to 96 countries (98% investable wealth).
    • About 65% of modelled untapped demand is from investors with no prior gold exposure.
    • Four in five respondents ranked provider trust as the primary precondition for allocating to digital gold.
    • Physical redemption constraints include single global pick-up points and minimums tied to 400‑oz London Good Delivery bars.
    • A major security breach was cited by 44% of respondents as the most damaging confidence risk.
    • Awareness is highly uneven: 76% in Indonesia and 71% in India versus 19% in Canada.
    • Age split is material: 50% awareness among 25–34-year-olds compared with 23% for 55+ cohorts.
    • Scenario range spans a bear case of US$70–80 billion and an upside of US$270–280 billion by 2031, assuming flat gold prices.
    • World Gold Council’s planned “Gold as a Service” stack would centralise sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption workflows for issuers.

    Our Take

    The World Gold Council’s push on digital gold sits alongside its recent work on doré refining transparency and formalising artisanal mining, signalling a coordinated effort to make gold traceable and investable from mine to app-based product rather than treating these as separate policy tracks.

    With digital gold currently representing less than 1% of the physical investment market, the projected US$95 billion of new bullion inflows by 2031 would materially deepen liquidity for refiners and mints such as the Royal Mint and ABC Bullion, potentially reinforcing London and other established hubs rather than shifting trade to crypto-native venues.

    High awareness in Indonesia and India but very low awareness in Canada contrasts with our broader gold coverage, where institutional allocations in Western markets are already mature, implying that ‘gold-as-a-service’ platforms may find faster retail growth in emerging markets while North America remains dominated by ETFs and futures.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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