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    Copper price touches fresh Comex record: supply squeeze lens for mine planners

    August 13, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Copper price touches fresh Comex record: supply squeeze lens for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper for September delivery on Comex briefly hit a record $6.7140/lb ($14,802/t) as a tame US inflation print eased rate fears and a tight physical market drove LME cash copper to a $207.50/t backwardation over three-month prices, the widest of 2026, with LME stocks down 14% since end-July to 214,550 t. Supply pressure is compounded by Chile cutting its production forecast again and Indonesia’s Gresik smelter, which treats Grasberg ore, remaining offline after an 8 August boiler leak. On the project side, Sweden’s government cleared Boliden’s Laver concession appeal, unlocking environmental permitting for a 849.5 Mt deposit grading 0.24% Cu, while Bougainville authorised Lloyds Metals & Energy to study reopening Panguna, with 5.3 Mt Cu and 19.3 Moz Au in remaining reserves.

    Technical Brief

    • September Comex copper peaked at $6.7140/lb before easing to $6.6335/lb intraday.
    • The December Comex contract traded higher at $6.8070/lb, with September 2027 at $7.0280/lb.
    • LME cash copper settled at $14,424.50/t versus $14,217/t for three‑month, confirming steep nearby tightness.
    • Backwardation widened from $34/t end‑July to $138/t on Monday, then $207.50/t on Tuesday.
    • LME inventories dropped over 35,000 t since end‑July to 214,550 t, intensifying prompt‑metal scarcity.
    • Comex copper around $14,625/t traded roughly $400/t above the LME three‑month benchmark, indicating regional dislocation.
    • At Panguna, remaining reserves of 5.3 Mt Cu and 19.3 Moz Au underpin a ~US$160 billion in‑situ valuation.
    • Tampakan’s revised schedule targets 2028 start‑up, averaging 375,000 t Cu and 360,000 oz Au in concentrate annually over 17 years.
    • Boliden’s Laver deposit holds 849.5 Mt at 0.24% Cu, equating to ~2 Mt contained copper plus Au‑Ag‑Mo by‑products.
    • Equity response is uneven: Dominion Holdings’ shares are up 821% in 2026 versus a 5.2% national index gain.

    Our Take

    With copper for September 2027 already above the current Comex record and LME cash–three‑month backwardation at $207.5/t, project developers such as Codelco at El Teniente and Boliden at Laver are being pushed to lock in long‑dated offtake or hedging now, rather than wait for potential easing in the physical squeeze.

    The 18–47% copper price gains over 2026 and 12 months contrast with much sharper equity moves at names like Dominion Holdings (up 821% in 2026) and laggards such as Vale, signalling that investors are aggressively differentiating between copper‑leveraged portfolios and iron ore‑heavy exposures even within diversified miners.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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