Copper price surge on China demand, Chile losses: key signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper climbed 1.3% on Comex to $6.35/lb (just under $14,000/t), within 5% of its early-June record, as China’s import premium hit $100/t for the first time since May 2025 and Shanghai exchange stocks fell 20% last week to 79,909 t, down 45% year-to-date. Tightness is being driven by Beijing’s VAT crackdown on the “invoice economy”, pushing substitution from scrap into cathode and drawing metal out of LME warehouses despite record 630,293 t in Comex storage. On the supply side, storms cut South32’s payable output at Sierra Gorda to 16,000 t for the June quarter, Antofagasta’s H1 production dropped 9.5% to 285,000 t with cash costs guided up to $2.40–$2.60/lb, and Codelco halted surface operations at Andina and shipments from El Teniente.
Technical Brief
- Three-month LME copper traded at $13,608/t in London morning dealings on Monday.
- China’s import premium jumped from ~$20/t in late January to $100/t by Friday.
- That premium had been around $340/t a week earlier, well below last summer’s $2,600/t spike.
- Beijing’s tighter VAT enforcement is constraining domestic scrap circulation, forcing greater reliance on refined cathode.
- Shanghai exchange copper inventories fell 20% last week to 79,909 t and sit at seasonal lows.
- Comex copper stocks rose 16,821 t to a record 630,293 t after eight consecutive quarterly builds.
- New Comex capacity includes 6,708 t delivered into a newly added Mobile, Alabama warehouse.
- At Sierra Gorda, storms forced a temporary processing halt, cutting South32’s attributable quarterly output to 16,000 t.
- Storm impacts in central Chile halted Codelco’s surface operations at Andina and ore shipments from El Teniente.
Our Take
Sierra Gorda’s production issues in northern Chile come just weeks after a Memorandum of Understanding between Sierra Gorda SCM (KGHM/South32) and BHP’s Spence mine, signalling that any sustained disruption could accelerate joint technical initiatives to stabilise or optimise output across that Antofagasta cluster.
KGHM’s exposure to both Chilean operations (via Sierra Gorda) and Polish growth projects such as Lumina Metals’ Nowa Sól, highlighted in our recent coverage, suggests the group is partially hedged geographically against weather-related and operational risk in Latin America-driven copper supply.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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