Copper price jumps on tightening supply: project and cost notes for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper for September delivery on Comex jumped up to 2.9% to $6.4930/lb on Thursday, leaving prices about 2.5% below the early‑June record above $6.60/lb as tight physical supply outweighed a non‑unanimous US Fed decision to hold rates. LME copper rose 1.3% to $13,753/t, nearby contracts flipped into a $24/t backwardation and exchange stocks fell over 10,000 t this week to 262,300 t, while Codelco scrapped its 1.7 Mt five‑year output goal and guided 2026 production to ≤1.357 Mt amid Chile storm disruptions. Copper‑exposed miners rallied, with Teck and Anglo American up 6.1%, Glencore up 4.6% on a 15% first‑half copper output rise, and Rio Tinto posting its strongest first‑half earnings in four years on growing copper exposure.
Technical Brief
- Nearby LME copper backwardation of ~$24/t over three‑month futures signals acute prompt‑metal scarcity.
- LME warehouse inventories dropped >10,000 t in a week, now sitting at 262,300 t.
- China’s copper import premiums last week reached their highest level since 2022, indicating strong spot demand.
- Codelco’s new chairman stated there is “no possibility” of achieving the 1.7 Mt five‑year output target.
- Codelco had already capped 2026 production guidance at ≤1.357 Mt, before additional Chile storm disruptions.
- IEA warns sulphuric acid shortages now endanger more than one‑seventh of global copper mine output.
- First Quantum’s Cobre Panama restart is currently the main identified new supply relief in the near term.
Our Take
With more than a seventh of global copper output flagged as at risk from sulphuric acid shortages, heap‑leach and SX‑EW operations such as those highlighted in other copper coverage in our database are likely to face the sharpest cost and throughput pressure if acid supply contracts further.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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