Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

    Geomechanics.io

    Geomechanics, Streamlined.

    © 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

    Geomechanics.io

    CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

    Industries

    MiningConstructionTunnelling

    Company

    Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Copper price bullish calls: supply shock implications for mine planners

    June 2, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Copper price bullish calls: supply shock implications for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper prices just below $14,000/ton in London, around $500 off January’s record, are drawing sharply higher forecasts from Goldman Sachs at $13,735/ton by year-end and Citigroup at $14,500/ton this month and $15,000 within a year. Goldman has cut its global mine supply outlook by 350,000 tons after major incidents at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), with both mines unlikely to reach full capacity before 2028. The bank now sees the ex-US copper deficit jumping to 640,000 tons, driven by stronger US imports, tight inventories and electrification demand, with Citi adding tariff risk on refined copper to the bullish case.

    Technical Brief

    • Goldman’s revised mine supply forecast removes 350,000 t of copper from expected global output.
    • Goldman estimates the ex-US copper deficit could jump to 640,000 t, from 60,000 t previously.
    • US copper imports exceeded expectations in H1 2026 and are forecast to reaccelerate due to open arbitrage.
    • Citi notes “lingering fears” of US tariffs on refined copper as a sentiment and pricing support factor.

    Our Take

    Copper’s year‑to‑date 10% rise and the narrow $500/t gap to January’s record sit alongside our database’s note that copper has already traded above $13,200/t this year, signalling that any fresh supply disruptions at Grasberg or Kamoa‑Kakula could quickly force new all‑time highs rather than just retests.

    With Grasberg and the Kamoa‑Kakula complex not expected to reach full capacity until 2028, the current tightness highlighted by Goldman and Citi implies several more years where marginal supply is dominated by higher‑cost or politically exposed jurisdictions such as the DRC and Indonesia, raising execution and ESG risk for offtakers.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    ARLYX underground autonomous handling: productivity and ventilation gains for mines
    Mining
    about 2 hours ago

    ARLYX underground autonomous handling: productivity and ventilation gains for mines

    ARLYX Technologies has launched a fully electric, autonomous underground material-handling system combining a 5,000 kg-capacity utility vehicle with an AutoLatch module that can load, transport, and unload consumables during blasting periods while crews are evacuated. By shifting rock bolts, pipes, and concrete deliveries off production shifts and clearing ramp traffic, ARLYX claims mines can gain roughly one extra ore truckload per day, worth up to C$27 million annually, with a single teleoperator supervising up to ten vehicles. The LTE/5G/WiFi/radio-agnostic platform, developed and trialled in Quebec and now adding fire suppression, dust control, and ore-transport modules, also targets ventilation and maintenance cost reductions through zero diesel emissions and simplified mechanics.

    USA Rare Earth South Carolina plant: mine‑to‑magnet chain risks for engineers
    Mining
    about 4 hours ago

    USA Rare Earth South Carolina plant: mine‑to‑magnet chain risks for engineers

    USA Rare Earth will invest $1.2 billion in a rare earth metals and NdFeB magnet plant at Bailey Industrial Park, Blacksburg, South Carolina, targeting 6,400 tpa of sintered NdFeB magnets and 5,000 tpa of strip-cast metal and alloy, with commissioning from 2028. Together with an expanded Stillwater, Oklahoma facility, US domestic capacity is expected to reach 10,000 tpa of NdFeB magnets and 10,000 tpa of heavy rare earth strip-cast metal and alloy, fed by the Round Top project in Texas and the proposed Serra Verde acquisition in Brazil. The vertically integrated mine-to-magnet chain faces regulatory scrutiny in Brazil, a contested $1.58 billion CHIPS-backed funding package, and a technology theft lawsuit from MP Materials.

    Glencore’s Cerrejón shutdown: social risk and supply impacts for mine planners
    Mining
    about 7 hours ago

    Glencore’s Cerrejón shutdown: social risk and supply impacts for mine planners

    Glencore’s Cerrejón mine in La Guajira, one of the world’s largest open-pit coal operations, has halted mining, rail and port activities and declared force majeure after a community blockade cut fuel and coal movements on the railway to Puerto Bolívar from 23 May. Cerrejón, which produced 16.8 Mt in 2025 and has faced nearly 80 blockades this year (333 in 2024, plus nine terrorist attacks), has suspended most employment contracts while maintaining staff for maintenance and environmental controls. The dispute centres on constitutional rulings, water access, renewable energy projects and royalty distribution, signalling persistent social and regulatory risk for Colombian coal, whose national output fell to 53.9 Mt in 2025.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental