Copper price bullish calls: supply shock implications for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper prices just below $14,000/ton in London, around $500 off January’s record, are drawing sharply higher forecasts from Goldman Sachs at $13,735/ton by year-end and Citigroup at $14,500/ton this month and $15,000 within a year. Goldman has cut its global mine supply outlook by 350,000 tons after major incidents at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), with both mines unlikely to reach full capacity before 2028. The bank now sees the ex-US copper deficit jumping to 640,000 tons, driven by stronger US imports, tight inventories and electrification demand, with Citi adding tariff risk on refined copper to the bullish case.
Technical Brief
- Goldman’s revised mine supply forecast removes 350,000 t of copper from expected global output.
- Goldman estimates the ex-US copper deficit could jump to 640,000 t, from 60,000 t previously.
- US copper imports exceeded expectations in H1 2026 and are forecast to reaccelerate due to open arbitrage.
- Citi notes “lingering fears” of US tariffs on refined copper as a sentiment and pricing support factor.
Our Take
Copper’s year‑to‑date 10% rise and the narrow $500/t gap to January’s record sit alongside our database’s note that copper has already traded above $13,200/t this year, signalling that any fresh supply disruptions at Grasberg or Kamoa‑Kakula could quickly force new all‑time highs rather than just retests.
With Grasberg and the Kamoa‑Kakula complex not expected to reach full capacity until 2028, the current tightness highlighted by Goldman and Citi implies several more years where marginal supply is dominated by higher‑cost or politically exposed jurisdictions such as the DRC and Indonesia, raising execution and ESG risk for offtakers.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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