Codelco’s El Teniente setback: seismic risk and supply impacts for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Suspended development of the Andes Norte section at Codelco’s El Teniente, triggered by new studies of an “emerging seismic phenomenon” at greater depth, may last up to two years and follows a July 2025 rockburst equivalent to magnitude 4.2 that killed six workers in adjacent Andesita and Teniente 7 panels. El Teniente’s output is already about 27% lower year-on-year and Codelco has conceded its 1.7 Mt/y copper target for 2030 is unattainable, tightening a market where CRU reports one LME participant holding 50–79.99% of live copper warrants. Comex September copper hit an intraday record of $6.7045/lb as Chile posted its weakest Q2 copper production in nearly 20 years, with traders diverting metal into the US ahead of possible tariffs.
Technical Brief
- Six-month geotechnical review at Andes Norte identified a new deep-level seismic mechanism unlike historically managed hazards.
- The July 31, 2025 rockburst in Andesita and Teniente 7, magnitude-4.2 equivalent, triggered criminal, regulatory and technical investigations.
- Suspension of Andes Norte development for up to two years is explicitly framed as a worker-safety protection measure, not an economic optimisation.
- The emerging seismic phenomenon is described as depth-related, implying possible transition from structurally controlled to stress-driven failure regimes.
- Similar deepening projects globally are being cautioned that conventional rockburst controls may be insufficient once operations push into comparable stress domains.
Our Take
In our database, Codelco already features heavily in recent copper price coverage, and the El Teniente setback compounds a pattern where Chilean supply issues are repeatedly cited alongside tight LME warrant control and record Comex levels above $6.60/lb.
The suspension at the Andes Norte section lands just as Codelco is also delaying its Maricunga lithium project to 2034, signalling that Chile’s state miner is simultaneously under strain in both copper and lithium build‑outs rather than being able to lean on battery metals growth.
With El Teniente output already at a 25‑year low and Codelco publicly shifting to ‘profitability over volume’ in July 2026, high‑cost or geotechnically complex copper expansions in the Andes are likely to face tougher internal hurdle rates, which could open space for lower‑risk producers such as Freeport‑McMoRan and Southern Copper highlighted in other recent copper price pieces.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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