Argentina’s lithium crown bid by 2035: project risk and offtake notes for miners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Argentina is forecast by GEM Mining Consulting to overtake Chile as South America’s top lithium producer by 2035, reaching 481,000 tonnes LCE versus Chile’s 426,000 tonnes, within a global supply of 3.55 million tonnes LCE from 150 modelled mines and projects. The projection hinges on the two-stage Pozuelos–Pastos Grandes brine project delivering 90,000 tonnes LCE per year; without it, Argentina would drop to about 391,000 tonnes and lose the lead. Scenario analysis shows 2035 global output ranging from 2.63 to 4.03 million tonnes LCE, prompting GEM to urge offtakers to tie contracts to milestones such as secured financing, commissioning and sustained recovery performance.
Technical Brief
- The Pozuelos–Pastos Grandes brine project is structured as a two-stage development totalling 90,000 t/y LCE.
- Ownership of PPG is split 67% Ganfeng Lithium and 33% Lithium Argentina via a joint venture.
- GEM’s supply model covers 150 operating, expansion and development assets across 27 countries feeding the 2035 outlook.
- Chile’s modelled output rises from ~361,000 t LCE in 2026 to 426,000 t LCE in 2035, but with falling global share.
- Under a constrained-development case, global 2035 supply drops to 2.63 Mt LCE versus the central 3.55 Mt.
- An accelerated-delivery scenario increases 2035 output to 4.03 Mt LCE, driven by faster project build and ramp-up.
- A weak-market case assumes a two‑year delay for new projects plus a 10% cut to existing operations from 2027.
- That weak‑market scenario removes ~529,000 t LCE from 2030 supply, about 17% below the central forecast.
- GEM advises tying offtake volumes to milestones such as secured financing, commissioning and sustained recovery performance.
- Supply-chain diversification guidance extends beyond mine location to include processing capacity and transport route robustness.
Our Take
GEM Mining Consulting’s separate Volume Scarcity Index work in our database scores lithium at 80/100 and shows only 68% of 2035 demand covered, so even the ‘fast delivery’ scenario of 4.03Mt LCE by 2035 still implies structurally tight conditions that favour lower-cost Argentine brine projects over marginal hard‑rock capacity.
The projected fall in Chile’s lithium supply share from 18% in 2026 to 12% by 2035 lines up with GEM Mining Consulting’s Chile copper ‘Production‑at‑Risk’ analysis, suggesting that operational and social‑licence risk in Chile is increasingly being priced into long‑horizon investment decisions across multiple commodities.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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