Gold slipped below $5,100/oz on Friday, touching about $5,020 and heading for a second straight weekly loss as the Middle East war drives up oil and gas prices and keeps interest rate cut expectations low. The metal has traded in a tight $5,000–$5,200/oz range since an early-month spike after the US-Israeli strike on Iran, and is now almost 9% off its late-January record near $5,600/oz, though still 17% higher year-to-date. Silver fell almost 5% to just above $80/oz, with only a 10% gain so far in 2026.

Rio Tinto is slowing construction of the Nemaska lithium hydroxide conversion plant at Bécancour, Quebec, cutting its contractual workforce by about 50% while keeping several hundred workers on site, but still targets commissioning this decade and first production in 2028. The plant is roughly 70% complete, designed for 32,000 tonnes per year of lithium hydroxide, with Rio planning US$300 million of investment alongside a C$200 million commitment from the Quebec government, which retains 46.1%. Nemaska’s integrated project is based on a 26‑year Whabouchi open‑pit/underground mine producing 200,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, though Rio is reassessing feed against its Galaxy hard rock project, with a decision due in H2 2026.

Rising Brent crude above $100/bbl could lift iron ore cash costs by about 20%, copper by 16% and gold by 9% if prices hold near that level, BMO Capital Markets estimates from Wood Mackenzie data. Historical sensitivities show iron ore costs rising ~4.2% for every 10% oil increase, versus 3.5% for copper and 1.9% for gold, with diesel now only ~5% of copper site costs but higher energy feeding through power, consumables, labour and equipment. Africa and the Americas appear less exposed than Europe and Asia, while sulphur and ammonia flows via the Strait of Hormuz threaten acid and explosives input costs.