Weda Bay nickel output cuts: price, supply and project signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Nickel prices on the LME rose 2% to $17,835/t, extending a >20% rally since mid-December, after Indonesia ordered sharp output cuts at PT Weda Bay Nickel on Halmahera, slashing its ore quota to 12 Mt for 2026 versus 42 Mt in 2025. National nickel ore quotas are set at 260–270 Mt for 2026, well below the 379 Mt target for 2025, as authorities use RKAB permits to manage a surplus from Indonesia’s ~65% share of global supply. Macquarie has lifted its 2026 price forecast 18% to $17,750/t, while Indonesia is also cutting thermal coal quotas by nearly 25% year-on-year.
Technical Brief
- Weda Bay had engineered mine plans to exceed 60 Mt ore output to supply a nearby industrial park.
- To maintain feed, Weda Bay has already imported substantial nickel ore volumes from the Philippines.
- Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry can revise RKAB production quotas mid‑year, adding planning uncertainty.
- Ownership of Weda Bay is split between Tsingshan Holding Group, Eramet SA and PT Aneka Tambang.
- Eramet has confirmed the reduced quota and is preparing a formal request for upward revision.
- Indonesia’s nickel output surge to ~65% of global supply has already forced higher‑cost Australian and New Caledonian operations to shut.
- Thermal coal quotas are being cut by nearly 25% year‑on‑year, with the industry warning of potential mine closures and supply gaps for overseas power utilities.
Our Take
Indonesia’s move from a 379 Mt nickel ore target in 2025 to a lower 260–270 Mt quota range this year signals a deliberate tightening that, in our database, contrasts with earlier years where policy consistently pushed volume growth to feed new HPAL and NPI capacity.
The sharp cut in PT Weda Bay Nickel’s quota from 42 Mt in 2025 to 12 Mt this year effectively shifts marginal supply away from one of Indonesia’s lowest-cost, large-scale hubs in Halmahera, which is likely to support LME prices and put cost pressure on higher-cost laterite operations in the Philippines and New Caledonia.
With Indonesia now accounting for about 65% of global nickel output in our coverage, policy-driven quota changes there have become a primary price-setting mechanism for the metal, similar to how Chinese export and production decisions shape seaborne markets in other base metals.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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