US copper stockpiles and hidden tightness: supply risk lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Nearly 70% of visible exchange copper stocks are now held in US COMEX warehouses, with 718,000 tonnes in October versus just 319,000 tonnes on LME and SHFE combined, creating a market where headline global inventories of 1.04 million tonnes conceal acute tightness outside America. Section 232 tariff uncertainty has kept metal in the US even after COMEX’s premium over LME collapsed from a July 2025 peak of $2,230 per tonne to an average $156, while China’s Yangshan cathode premium has climbed above $200 per tonne. Potential 15–30% US refined copper tariffs from 2027, El Niño-linked power risks in the DRC and Zambia, and Project Vault strategic stockpiling all add to regional supply stress despite nominal ICSG surplus forecasts.
Technical Brief
- COMEX warehouses now hold 718,000 t of copper, roughly double any previous record since 1990.
- COMEX’s share of visible LME/COMEX/SHFE stocks jumped from a 2015–2024 average 16% to 69%.
- LME+SHFE inventories total 319,000 t, around 11% below their 2015–2024 average levels.
- Removing ~130,000 t stored in LME New Orleans and Baltimore leaves only ~190,000 t ex‑US.
- Of 633,000 t added to COMEX since February 2025, 77% arrived after the tariff announcement.
- From August 2025–September 2026, the COMEX–LME spread averaged $156/t, essentially flat versus 2024’s $151/t.
- Washington is considering refined copper tariffs of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, with decisions delayed.
- A 12,000 t Congolese shipment into US Project Vault marks early strategic stockpiling of physical cathode.
- El Niño‑linked power shortages flagged for DRC and Zambia introduce additional production risk in two key suppliers.
- For mine planners and smelters, regional inventory location and tariff risk now matter as much as global balances.
Our Take
GEM Mining Consulting’s Volume Scarcity Index work in August–October 2026 already framed copper as only 75% supplied versus projected 2035 demand, so the current concentration of visible copper stocks in the US looks more like a short-term distortion than a fix for the structural deficit they model.
The same consultancy’s Chile Production-at-Risk Index showing 5.2% of output at risk at major copper mines underlines how vulnerable LME- and SHFE-linked supply is, which makes COMEX’s outsized share of visible inventories a fragile buffer if disruptions in Latin America or Africa persist.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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