Sibanye US PGM forecast cut: production, staffing and project notes for engineers
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Sibanye-Stillwater has cut its 2026 US PGM guidance by up to 15%, with Stillwater and Columbus now expected to deliver 245,000–255,000 oz of platinum and palladium after a five-week strike slashed September-quarter output to 59,417 oz and left US staffing about 25% below planned levels for 2027 mechanised operations. Southern African PGM production fell 10% year-on-year to 458,202 oz and gold 12% to 155,449 oz, yet group adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to 10.8 billion rand on stronger prices. At Finland’s Keliber project, Sibanye is prioritising mine and concentrator ramp-up while deferring refinery commissioning, keeping timing of 15,000 t/y lithium hydroxide output beyond 2026 dependent on market conditions.
Technical Brief
- September-quarter US PGM production dropped 19% year-on-year to 59,417 oz due to the stoppage.
- Labour attrition during wage negotiations left US operations staffed about 25% below 2027 mechanised mining plans.
- Southern African PGM output reduction was driven by planned surface cutbacks and reserve depletion at Kroondal.
- Underground gold production from mature, deep-level South African mines fell 22%, dragging total gold to 155,449 oz.
- Group adjusted EBITDA nevertheless increased 9% year-on-year to 10.8 billion rand on stronger metal prices.
- At Finland’s Keliber project, hot commissioning of the concentrator continued in Q3, with design-capacity testing slated for Q4.
- Keliber is engineered for ~15,000 t/y battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate over a +18-year mine life.
- Staged Keliber commissioning decouples mine/concentrator ramp-up from refinery start, deferring battery-grade output timing to market conditions.
Our Take
The five-week stoppage at the Stillwater and East Boulder mines comes on top of a softening PGM price outlook flagged in our coverage of BMI’s platinum and palladium forecast cuts, which likely tightens Sibanye-Stillwater’s headroom for further US wage concessions or high-cost production in Montana.
Recent approval of the Mt Lyell copper–gold restart and investment in low-profile equipment at Rustenburg suggest that, despite lower southern African PGM and South African gold output, Sibanye-Stillwater is reallocating capital towards mechanised and base-metal-linked assets that can better withstand labour and depth-related constraints at mature mines.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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