Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Resource nationalism and critical minerals: contract risk lessons for project teams

    June 5, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Resource nationalism and critical minerals: contract risk lessons for project teams

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Resource nationalism is shifting from tax and royalty changes to export bans, production quotas and processing mandates, with China’s October 2025 rare earth export controls framework and the DRC’s 2025 cobalt export ban-turned-quota regime exposing supply chains to abrupt political risk. Indonesia’s nickel export ban has pulled in billions of dollars of downstream smelting and refining, while Vietnam’s ban on raw rare earth exports and Chile’s state-led lithium model tighten state control over value addition. Gibson Dunn warns that stabilisation clauses, force majeure terms and bilateral investment treaties are being stress-tested, making contract design, ownership structures and processing locations as critical as ore grades for lithium and rare earth projects.

    Technical Brief

    • China’s October 2025 rare earth export-control package extended to elements, materials and processing technologies.
    • Beijing suspended those controls after one month, but retained the full legal framework for rapid reactivation.
    • DRC’s February 2025 cobalt export ban forced some producers to declare force majeure under existing offtake contracts.
    • Subsequent DRC production quotas created intra-industry disagreement, complicating long-term supply planning for battery manufacturers.
    • Indonesia’s nickel policy has channelled “billions of dollars” into local smelting and refining capacity build-out.
    • Vietnam’s regime now combines tighter state control over rare earth mining with a prohibition on raw material exports.
    • Chile’s lithium model keeps a state-led role in project ownership and development rather than full privatisation.
    • Gibson Dunn flags stabilisation clauses, force majeure language and indirect expropriation claims as key dispute flashpoints.

    Our Take

    WoodMac’s projection that China could control 39% of global lithium production by 2030, highlighted in our 25 May 2026 coverage, underlines why resource nationalism in countries like Chile and the DRC directly affects Beijing’s ability to secure upstream feed for its battery and rare earths chains.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    ATSB welcomes new commissioner: safety investigation focus for engineers
    Policy
    about 2 hours ago

    ATSB welcomes new commissioner: safety investigation focus for engineers

    James Miller has been appointed Commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) for a three‑year term, taking responsibility for national rail, marine and aviation safety investigations. Miller brings more than 50 years’ aviation experience, including as Qantas Fleet Captain, into a role that shapes standards and incident analysis across complex, multi‑modal transport networks. For civil and transport engineers, his background suggests continued emphasis on data‑driven accident investigation, operational risk management and interface safety at rail and port infrastructure.

    Ontario threat to cut US electricity, critical minerals: risks for project teams
    Policy
    about 14 hours ago

    Ontario threat to cut US electricity, critical minerals: risks for project teams

    Ontario Premier Doug Ford has warned he is prepared to cut off both electricity exports and critical minerals to the United States after Trump imposed 50% tariffs on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods, including autos, auto parts and steel. Michigan currently receives about 6% of its power from Ontario via four cross-border transmission lines with 2,000 MW transfer capacity, and Ford has already imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York in 2025. Any suspension of Ontario shipments would hit US supply of high‑grade nickel from the Sudbury Basin (Vale, Glencore) and uranium refined at Cameco’s Blind River facility, the world’s largest commercial uranium refinery.

    US scrap rules: processing bottlenecks and security ratio for engineers
    Policy
    1 day ago

    US scrap rules: processing bottlenecks and security ratio for engineers

    US export restrictions taking effect later in August will force some lithium-ion battery scrap, including black mass, and tungsten scrap to be sold to US buyers, but GEM Mining Consulting’s Alina Karpunina argues supply security hinges on how much of this material is actually converted into qualified secondary minerals. DOE data show a 2023 US mismatch, with intermediate facilities able to process nearly 175,000 tons of batteries and scrap, but only about 35,500 tons of battery-material recovery capacity and 76,000 tons more merely planned. Karpunina proposes a “scrap-to-security conversion ratio” based on contained critical-mineral units recovered to customer specification, warning that export controls without robust domestic processing risk idle feedstock and continued reliance on primary mining.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental