Resource nationalism and critical minerals: contract risk lessons for project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Resource nationalism is shifting from tax and royalty changes to export bans, production quotas and processing mandates, with China’s October 2025 rare earth export controls framework and the DRC’s 2025 cobalt export ban-turned-quota regime exposing supply chains to abrupt political risk. Indonesia’s nickel export ban has pulled in billions of dollars of downstream smelting and refining, while Vietnam’s ban on raw rare earth exports and Chile’s state-led lithium model tighten state control over value addition. Gibson Dunn warns that stabilisation clauses, force majeure terms and bilateral investment treaties are being stress-tested, making contract design, ownership structures and processing locations as critical as ore grades for lithium and rare earth projects.
Technical Brief
- China’s October 2025 rare earth export-control package extended to elements, materials and processing technologies.
- Beijing suspended those controls after one month, but retained the full legal framework for rapid reactivation.
- DRC’s February 2025 cobalt export ban forced some producers to declare force majeure under existing offtake contracts.
- Subsequent DRC production quotas created intra-industry disagreement, complicating long-term supply planning for battery manufacturers.
- Indonesia’s nickel policy has channelled “billions of dollars” into local smelting and refining capacity build-out.
- Vietnam’s regime now combines tighter state control over rare earth mining with a prohibition on raw material exports.
- Chile’s lithium model keeps a state-led role in project ownership and development rather than full privatisation.
- Gibson Dunn flags stabilisation clauses, force majeure language and indirect expropriation claims as key dispute flashpoints.
Our Take
WoodMac’s projection that China could control 39% of global lithium production by 2030, highlighted in our 25 May 2026 coverage, underlines why resource nationalism in countries like Chile and the DRC directly affects Beijing’s ability to secure upstream feed for its battery and rare earths chains.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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