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    Nvidia turmoil and AI data centres: copper demand timing risks for miners

    November 13, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Nvidia turmoil and AI data centres: copper demand timing risks for miners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s abrupt resignation, amid governance and US national security concerns and a 30% share-price drop to about $148, is testing assumptions that AI-led data-centre growth will drive sustained metals demand. Microsoft is still guiding for about $170 billion of 2026 capex and Alphabet for $195–$205 billion, but with roughly 65–75% of spend going into servers and processors rather than buildings and power systems, any slowdown would mainly hit copper- and aluminium-intensive grid connections, substations and cooling infrastructure. S&P Global projects global copper use rising from 28 Mt in 2025 to 42 Mt in 2040, with AI-related data centres and power adding only ~2 Mt, so miners face more of a timing and financing risk than a wholesale demand collapse.

    Technical Brief

    • Microsoft spent $45.2 billion in the quarter to 30 September 2026, including finance leases.
    • More than $50 billion of Microsoft’s total capex is scheduled just for the December 2026 quarter.
    • About three-quarters of Microsoft’s recent technical spend went to shorter-lived processors, memory and storage hardware.
    • Alphabet allocated roughly 65% of its technical infrastructure budget to servers and networking, 35% to data-centre facilities.
    • S&P Global’s January forecast lifts global copper consumption from 28 Mt (2025) to 42 Mt (2040).
    • AI-related data centres and associated power generation contribute only ~2 Mt of that 14 Mt copper increase.
    • The IEA projects global data-centre electricity use rising from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, stressing grid and equipment constraints.

    Our Take

    The projected 2 Mt uplift in copper demand from AI and data centres sits within a much larger 14 Mt increase in total copper consumption between 2025 and 2040 in our database, suggesting AI-linked loads are material but not the dominant driver miners should bank their project pipelines on.

    IEA’s forecast that data-centre power use could reach 950 TWh by 2030 aligns with Microsoft’s 20‑year offtake-style deal for the 835 MW Crane plant in Pennsylvania, signalling that long-dated power-securement contracts may become a critical enabling factor for new copper, aluminium and uranium capacity tied to AI infrastructure.

    Earlier coverage of Nvidia’s $1 trillion market-cap slide highlighted broad exposure across critical minerals from cobalt and rare earths to tin and hafnium; combining that with this piece’s focus on copper and silver indicates that AI‑hardware cyclicality is now a cross‑commodity risk factor planners may need to stress‑test in project economics.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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