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    Lundin’s Chile copper cuts: production, cost and capex signals for mine planners

    November 6, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Lundin’s Chile copper cuts: production, cost and capex signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Lundin Mining has cut 2026 copper guidance at Chile’s Caserones mine for the second time in two months to 105,000–115,000 tonnes, after severe winter storms halted operations for about 30 days and ongoing snowmelt restricted haulage and mill feed, trimming group output guidance to 285,000–310,000 tonnes. Despite the disruption, Caserones’ cash cost guidance stays at $2.15–$2.35/lb and sustaining capex is reduced by $20 million to $215 million, while record realised copper prices drove quarterly revenue above $1.1 billion and free cash flow to $418 million. Lundin is pushing leach optimisation at Caserones to reach 35,000 t/y cathode capacity, adding a second-phase rectifier upgrade to 40,000 t/y, progressing a new ball mill at Chapada (15% complete, commissioning late 2027) and targeting a year-end sanction decision on the Vicuña JV with BHP after securing a high-voltage grid connection in San Juan.

    Technical Brief

    • Severe winter storms halted Caserones operations for ~30 days, with ongoing snowmelt limiting haulage and mill feed.
    • Lundin characterises reduced 2026 Caserones tonnage as deferred, planning production recovery through 2027.
    • Q3 copper output totalled 62,610 t versus analyst consensus of 68,000 t, indicating weather-driven underperformance.
    • Gold production reached 36,763 oz in Q3, slightly above BMO’s 34,900-oz forecast.
    • Consolidated cash cost guidance is unchanged at $1.95–$2.15/lb despite Chilean weather disruption.
    • Candelaria copper production increased 13% quarter-on-quarter, partially offsetting Caserones constraints at group level.
    • Access to the Cordillera exploration area depends on completing a 16 km road, pushing drilling to H1 2027.
    • Record realised copper prices have already driven 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $1.9 billion and FCF to $1.2 billion, exceeding full-year 2025 totals.

    Our Take

    The repeated weather‑driven guidance cuts at the high‑altitude Caserones mine echo the August 2026 revision in our database, signalling that climate and access‑road resilience will be central design issues for Lundin Mining’s wider Andean portfolio, including the Vicuña copper‑gold JV on the Chile‑Argentina border.

    The 50:50 Vicuña JV structure with BHP links Lundin Mining’s growth pipeline to a partner that is already rationalising Chilean infrastructure, as seen in BHP’s planned sale of transmission assets, which may influence how power and logistics are structured for future builds in San Juan province and along the Chile‑Argentina border.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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