Kazakhstan is positioning itself as an active broker between Russia, China and the West, leveraging assets such as the reopened Soviet-era National Geological Survey archive and state uranium producer Kazatomprom while reclaiming major industrial sites like the Qarmet steelworks and the Kostenko coal mine, where 46 miners died in a 2023 explosion. Western oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil have operated the Tengiz field since 1993, but that mega-project model does not translate directly to fragmented critical minerals supply chains dominated midstream by Chinese processing. For miners, the opportunity hinges on building non-Russian, non-Chinese export routes and in-country processing capacity in a state that now negotiates from far greater economic and political strength than in its early production-sharing era.

South32 is divesting nearly its entire aluminium portfolio to Alcoa in a deal valued at up to $5.6 billion, covering its 86% stake in Worsley Alumina, 100% of Hillside Aluminium in South Africa, and minority interests in Brazil’s MRN bauxite mine, alumina refinery and smelter, while excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique. Alcoa will pay $3.1 billion in cash, $1 billion in shares (about 6% of its equity), assume roughly $750 million in liabilities and may add up to $750 million linked to aluminium prices to 2030. The transaction shifts South32’s portfolio to base and precious metals with an expected 85% of pro-forma EBITDA from these commodities and a targeted A$125 million per year overhead reduction, while Alcoa projects about $900 million NPV in synergies from the integrated mine–refinery–smelter chain.

Guardian Metal Resources may move directly from prefeasibility to construction at its Pilot Mountain tungsten project in western Nevada, after a new PFS returned a post-tax NPV8 of $660.3 million, 59.6% IRR and a one-year payback on $288.7 million in capex. The plan envisages an eight-year open-pit operation mining 11.8 million tonnes of probable reserves at 0.171% WO3, feeding a 4,000 t/d mill to produce 15,916 tonnes of 60% WO3 concentrate plus 2.1 million oz silver. Guardian targets adjusted operating costs of $54,622 per tonne WO3 (net of by-products), is filing its mine plan with the BLM next month and aims for all concentrate to be processed in the US.