Kamoa-Kakula mine cost surge and output cuts: project risk notes for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Ivanhoe Mines has cut Kamoa-Kakula’s 2027 copper output guidance for a second time this year to 300,000–350,000 tonnes (from 380,000–420,000 tonnes) and lifted C1 cash cost guidance to $2.50–$3.00/lb amid lower grades, high diesel and reduced production. Steady-state capacity for the existing Phase 1–3 concentrators is now pegged at 400,000–450,000 tonnes, with shallow open-pit starter pits to begin waste stripping in Q1 2027 and first ore in Q3 2027, while eastern Kakula underground mining is delayed to late March 2028. A Phase 4 concentrator targeting ~500,000 t/y remains unapproved, with detailed engineering only starting in Q1 2027 and construction expected to take 18–24 months post-approval.
Technical Brief
- Kamoa-Kakula’s original 2027 guidance of 500,000–540,000 t copper has been progressively wound back.
- Q3 2026 output reached 76,401 t of saleable copper, up from 64,328 t in Q2.
- Full-year 2026 production is now expected at about 290,000 t of copper in concentrates.
- Eastern Kakula production mining restart has slipped from late 2027 to late March 2028 after further geotechnical/engineering work.
- 2027 capex guidance is $950 million–$1.15 billion, excluding an additional $100–$200 million for open-pit pre-stripping.
- Upper end of 2026 capital spending has been cut by $200 million, with that spend deferred into 2027.
- Phase 4 concentrator construction is estimated at 18–24 months post-approval, with detailed engineering only from Q1 2027.
- Updated life-of-mine plan for Kamoa-Kakula is scheduled for release in March 2027, incorporating open-pit and Phase 4 options.
- Hudbay Minerals will invest about C$30.1 million in Pecoy Copper, alongside a C$19.7 million second investor.
Our Take
With Freeport-McMoRan’s Bagdad expansion only targeting additional output around 2030 and the Sirius gas project in Colombia now pushed to 2031, the cost and schedule slippage at Kamoa-Kakula underscores how few large-scale copper or gas projects in our coverage are on track to deliver new supply before the late 2020s.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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