Gold price slide and US‑Iran tensions: planning signals for mine projects
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold fell as much as 1.8% on Monday to just above $4,500/oz, extending a 13% slide since the start of the Middle East war as stalled US‑Iran talks and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep energy prices and inflation worries elevated. US gold futures traded near $4,600/oz, with markets now watching US Treasury borrowing plans, multiple Federal Reserve speeches and a dense data calendar for clearer signals on the timing of rate cuts. Despite near‑term pressure, central banks are buying at their fastest pace in over a year, with Deutsche Bank projecting up to $8,000/oz within five years.
Technical Brief
- Price action followed two consecutive weekly declines, indicating sustained downside momentum rather than a single shock.
- Conflict-related disruption risk at the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of global oil shipments, is central.
- Market sentiment was hit by reports of an Iranian challenge to a US warship near the Strait.
- TD Securities’ Bart Melek flagged renewed inflation fears and “fairly hawkish” rate expectations as key bearish drivers.
- World Gold Council data show Q1 central-bank purchases running at the fastest pace in over a year.
- Deutsche Bank’s upside scenario envisages bullion reaching $8,000/oz within five years on accelerated de‑dollarisation.
- For 2026, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan price targets of $5,400/oz and $6,300/oz frame planning sensitivities.
Our Take
Across our recent gold coverage, TD Securities and JPMorgan recur as key forecasters, signalling that their price views are increasingly shaping how miners frame project economics and hedge strategies for bullion‑linked assets.
The sequence of related pieces from late February to late March 2026 shows gold repeatedly whipsawing with US‑Iran developments and oil moves, underlining that projects with high exposure to energy costs or Middle East logistics risk will see planning assumptions tested more often than in past cycles.
With Deutsche Bank’s $8,000/oz within‑five‑years projection sitting alongside articles documenting double‑digit drawdowns since the war began, operators in gold and copper are likely to keep long‑term expansion cases intact while delaying marginal projects that cannot withstand this level of short‑term volatility.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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