Gold price hits two-week high: scenario planning notes for mine project teams
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold extended its rebound to a two-week high on Thursday, with spot prices up 1.4% to above $4,750/oz and US futures near $4,770/oz, as reports that Iran is reviewing a US proposal to end the 10-week Middle East war eased inflation and interest-rate fears. The conflict has disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and driven a 10% drop in gold during the war, but BNP Paribas Fortis now sees potential for prices up to $6,000/oz, while Deutsche Bank has floated $8,000/oz on de-dollarisation. Analysts at TD Securities warn the peace headlines remain fragile, with Fed officials still signalling no imminent rate cuts as US inflation sits above 2%.
Technical Brief
- Spot bullion added a further 1.4% in early Thursday trade, extending the prior 3% session gain.
- US gold futures in New York tracked spot closely, trading around $4,770/oz during the move.
- The Middle East conflict has already lasted 10 weeks, coinciding with a 10% drawdown in gold.
- Disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the key inflation transmission mechanism cited.
- Central banks paused monetary easing cycles during the conflict, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.
- BNP Paribas Fortis’ Philippe Gijsels frames the current move as a resumption of a “secular bull market”.
- Deutsche Bank’s separate $8,000/oz scenario is explicitly tied to de‑dollarisation dynamics rather than war risk.
- TD Securities flags US–Iran positions as “unchanged compared to prior proposals”, warning of headline‑driven price reversals.
Our Take
The related 6 May 2026 piece on bullion jumping above $4,700/oz also hinged on US–Iran peace expectations, underscoring how quickly gold and silver in our database have been whipsawed by shifts in perceived Middle East conflict risk rather than by mine‑supply fundamentals.
With gold and silver dominating more than 400 keyword‑matched pieces in our coverage, the current 10‑week Middle East conflict and associated 10% price drawdown sit at the sharper end of recent volatility episodes, which can complicate hedging decisions for producers planning capex on multi‑year horizons.
The reference to New South Wales’ 1986 uranium mining prohibition is notable given Australia’s role in uranium supply; any policy softening there would add a politically stable source of uranium to the market, potentially affecting long‑term pricing assumptions for nuclear‑linked projects in other jurisdictions.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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