Gold price halts two-day decline: planning and capex signals for mine projects
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold prices stabilised on Wednesday, with spot gold briefly up 1.1% before settling just above $4,700/oz after US President Donald Trump announced an extended ceasefire with Iran, easing fears of further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Bullion is still down more than 10% since the war began nearly two months ago, but remains 8.5% higher year-to-date and about 60% above 2025 levels. DWS Group’s Darwei Kung reports “cleaner” positioning and an overweight stance in gold, while BMO notes three weeks of consistent ETF inflows but selling pressure in Asia around $4,850/oz.
Technical Brief
- Spot gold intraday move peaked at +1.1% before retracing most gains.
- Since war onset nearly two months ago, bullion’s cumulative drawdown exceeds 10% from its conflict peak.
- March marked gold’s worst monthly performance since 2008, indicating stress comparable to GFC conditions.
- DWS Group’s Darwei Kung reports prior “substantial” speculative, highly leveraged positioning cleared out by February.
- Kung shifted to an overweight gold allocation after the initial war-driven selloff, citing fundamentals.
- BMO flags three consecutive weeks of positive gold ETF inflows supporting a recovery from March lows.
- TD Securities’ Bart Melek ties current reprieve to lower rates along the curve and ceasefire optimism.
- BMO observes Asian selling interest emerging when prices approach roughly $4,850/oz, capping upside momentum.
Our Take
The 60% rise in gold since 2025 mentioned here lines up with our late‑2025 coverage of record prices above $4,500/oz, suggesting that even a 10% pullback since the Iran war began still leaves bullion at levels that keep many higher‑cost gold projects in the money.
TD Securities appears in both this piece and the January 2026 note on gold’s $4,430/oz spike after the Maduro raid, underlining how geopolitical flashpoints in regions far from the Middle East have repeatedly reinforced safe‑haven flows that gold producers can bank on when planning capex cycles.
The modest 0.5% uptick in Comex copper stocks contrasts with the extreme copper price swings highlighted in our December 2025 items, implying that for copper miners and smelters, sentiment around Gulf transit risks and macro demand is currently a bigger driver than short‑term inventory changes in US warehouses.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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