Canaccord’s lithium deficit to 2035: project pipeline and capex lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a “material” lithium market deficit from 2026 through to at least 2035, as constrained mine investment fails to match EV battery demand growth even under scenarios of higher prices in 2027–28. The outlook assumes no further supply disruptions beyond the recent suspension of a major Chinese operation and Zimbabwe’s ban on raw lithium exports, both of which have already driven prices sharply higher. Analysts say “significant” long-term capital deployment into new hard-rock and brine projects will be required to stabilise supply.
Technical Brief
- Analysts characterise required new supply as “significant” even under unchanged demand assumptions.
- Near-term demand weakness is already outweighed by tightening supply, indicating structurally constrained mine capacity.
Our Take
A near‑decade lithium deficit from 2026 to 2035 would structurally favour low‑cost incumbents such as SQM, which in our database already appears in multiple lithium project ramp‑up items like the Mt Holland–Kwinana integrated operation in Australia.
With both lithium and copper flagged in this piece and copper also prominent in other recent coverage (including US- and Brazil‑focused critical minerals IPO plans), Canaccord Genuity is positioning itself at the investment bank end of a broader battery and energy‑transition metals pipeline rather than single‑commodity research.
Latin American producers such as SQM could gain additional pricing and negotiation leverage in offtake and JV talks if Canaccord’s 2027–onward price‑response window materialises, especially as policy uncertainty in Chile and permitting bottlenecks in the US and Africa constrain greenfield lithium supply in our recent Mining coverage.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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