Glencore cobalt output sinks 52% under DRC quotas: supply and project notes for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Glencore’s own-sourced cobalt output fell 52% year-on-year to 13,700 tonnes in the first nine months of 2026 as DRC export quotas led its Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda operations to hold cobalt in mixed-ore solution rather than convert it to hydroxide. The African Copper division’s cobalt production dropped 56% to 11,600 tonnes, while undisclosed in-solution stocks create a latent supply overhang once quotas, in place until at least end-2027, are relaxed. In contrast, copper output rose 3% to 598,600 tonnes, with Glencore targeting 1.6 million tonnes annually by 2035.
Technical Brief
- Cobalt output dropped 20% quarter-on-quarter to 3,500 tonnes in Q3 2026, indicating accelerating curtailment.
- Retaining cobalt in mixed-ore solution avoids hydroxide conversion costs while export quotas cap near-term realisations.
- Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda reportedly hold sufficient cobalt stocks to fully utilise current export allocations.
- Actual cobalt tonnage held in solution is undisclosed, obscuring the scale and timing of future supply release.
- African Copper division’s cobalt decline coincided with higher mining rates and improved copper grades at the same assets.
- Copper production rose to 598,600 tonnes; excluding Mount Isa closure and Kidd sale, output was up 12% year-on-year.
- Steelmaking coal production fell 13% to 21.5 million tonnes due to lower plant throughput and yields at EVR.
- Energy coal edged up to 73.9 million tonnes, while ferrochrome output jumped 29% quarter-on-quarter after Boshoek and Wonderkop restarts.
- BMO estimated copper and steelmaking coal volumes missed its quarterly forecasts by 3% and 7% respectively, with zinc and thermal coal beating by 4–5%.
Our Take
The sharp cobalt output drop in the DRC comes as Glencore is simultaneously locking in long-term battery metals offtake elsewhere, such as the Jaguar nickel project in Brazil, signalling a deliberate diversification of supply away from single-jurisdiction risk in Congo.
The combination of constrained DRC cobalt supply and US-backed stockpiling initiatives like Project Vault, which explicitly includes cobalt and copper, is likely to support premia for Glencore’s tradable cobalt units and reinforces the strategic value of its marketing arm, which is already guiding to more than $5 billion in adjusted EBIT this year.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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