Eldorado Gold’s Skouries capex rise and 18% guidance cut: key points for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Eldorado Gold shares fell 7.9% to C$44.44 after it cut 2026 gold guidance 18% to 425,000–475,000 oz. and disclosed a US$160 million underlying capital increase at the Skouries copper-gold project, taking total project capital to about US$1.43 billion. Skouries’ 2026 output outlook was slashed to 10,000–35,000 oz. from 60,000–100,000 oz. as commissioning lengthens, with only two of six tailings filter presses currently operating and temporary generator use adding to costs before grid connection. All-in sustaining costs at existing mines rose 16% at the midpoint to US$1,975–US$2,125/oz., while McIlvenna Bay capex edged up 2.4% to US$975 million, extending cash burn into late 2026.
Technical Brief
- Only two of six Skouries tailings filter presses are running; four more due online in November.
- Temporary power at Skouries relied on generators now removed after grid connection, inflating pre-production operating costs.
- Total Skouries project capital now US$1.43 billion, with a further US$30 million contingent on start-up timing.
- Underlying Skouries capital increase is assessed at US$160 million, about 10% above previous estimates.
- Accelerated Skouries operational capital has risen to US$390 million, up US$130 million from earlier plans.
- Existing mine guidance cuts are driven by lower output at Kisladag and Olympias, partially offset by Lamaque.
- Kisladag’s ~300‑day heap leach cycle delays realisation of higher grades now being stacked until late 2027.
- Olympias’ expansion works are constraining fourth‑quarter plant throughput, reducing short‑term gold output despite longer‑term capacity aims.
- McIlvenna Bay capex has been revised to US$975 million, excluding all spend incurred before June 2024.
- Free cash flow excluding Skouries and McIlvenna Bay is positive US$98.3 million, versus a group deficit of US$191.1 million.
Our Take
The 72% reduction in expected gold output from Skouries comes despite recent milestones such as permanent grid connection and first concentrate production in September 2026, signalling that the main risk now is in ramp-up performance and plant reliability rather than basic project delivery.
Skouries’ designation as a strategic project under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act means that even with a 10% underlying capital increase, the gold-copper asset in Greece is likely to retain strong political and permitting backing, which can cushion schedule slippage but not cost or guidance credibility with investors.
With existing operations’ AISC guidance up 16% and Skouries/McIlvenna Bay driving a US$191.1 million free cash flow deficit, Eldorado Gold’s portfolio now resembles other copper-gold names in our database that are effectively funding multi-asset growth (Canada, Greece, Turkey) out of balance sheet rather than operating cash, increasing sensitivity to further capex creep.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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