Drone wars and the West’s critical minerals squeeze: supply risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Mass drone warfare, with an estimated 15 million units deployed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year and US$150 billion pledged globally for drone and counter-drone systems, is sharply increasing defence demand for gallium, germanium and magnetic rare earths, where China supplied 98% of refined gallium and 77% of refined germanium in 2023. Teck Resources plans up to C$850 million of investment at its Trail complex to double germanium and antimony output and add gallium, while Rio Tinto is piloting gallium recovery at Jonquière targeting 40 tonnes a year, about 5% of current global supply. Heavy rare earth capacity is also edging forward, with Neo Performance Materials’ new dysprosium/terbium separation line in Estonia and Aclara’s Carina project in Brazil aiming for 156 t/y Dy and 27 t/y Tb from 2028.
Technical Brief
- Small electric drone motors contain ~5–15 g Nd-Fe-B magnets each, scaling to tonnes at fleet level.
- NATO’s July decision commits over $40 billion in five years to counter-drone systems and training.
- Ukraine’s defence ministry targets >7 million drones produced in 2026, up from 4 million in 2025.
- U.S. germanium metal imports dropped an estimated 67% in 2025 after Chinese export restrictions.
- European germanium metal prices climbed from $3,150/kg in January 2025 to $5,380/kg in October.
- China supplied 99% of primary low-purity gallium in 2025; the U.S. produced zero primary gallium.
- Teck’s Trail complex already recovers germanium as a zinc byproduct, underpinning planned capacity expansion.
- Rio Tinto’s Jonquière pilot will extract gallium from bauxite processed at the Vaudreuil alumina refinery.
Our Take
With China supplying 98–99% of primary gallium and over three-quarters of germanium, the planned 40 t/y gallium output at Rio Tinto’s Complexe Jonquière and the germanium/antimony expansion at Teck’s Trail complex would still leave Western supply structurally tight, suggesting long-term premium pricing for non-Chinese material in defence-linked contracts.
BMO Capital Markets appears across several related pieces as a key intermediary on critical minerals and precious metals financings, signalling that institutions with strong commodity research benches are likely to shape how capital is allocated into gallium, germanium and rare earth projects responding to NATO’s drone and counter-drone build-out.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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