Copper price record and retreat: supply squeeze signals for mine project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper hit a fresh Comex record of $6.7775/lb (~$14,940/t) on Wednesday before slipping 1.6% as an extreme London squeeze eased, with LME cash-to-three‑month spreads shrinking from over $500/t last week to $127/t. Tightness remains in prompt metal: more than 50,000 t were queued for withdrawal from LME warehouses, SHFE on‑warrant stocks fell for a sixth day, yet Comex inventories exceeded 675,000 t after 46 straight daily builds. Project Blue estimates 338,000 t of mine output lost in H1, leaving CRU’s projected 2026 surplus of 639,000 t looking closer to balance.
Technical Brief
- LME three‑month copper traded around $14,350/t at 13:03 London time, near record settlements.
- Intraday LME price remains below January’s $14,527.50/t peak, indicating resistance near that level.
- September LME contract traded about $100/t above October, up from < $50/t last week.
- Jinrui Futures sets technical support for SHFE copper at 106,000 yuan/t, versus trading near 109,000 yuan/t.
- Bank of China International’s Amelia Fu anticipates “new record highs” in copper over coming weeks or months.
- Macquarie’s Alice Fox estimates record Comex stockpiles could take “years” to work down.
- Southern Copper’s market capitalisation is ~US$181 billion, marginally above Rio Tinto’s ~US$180 billion.
- Price moves have copper equities easing: Southern Copper −2.5%, Freeport‑McMoRan −1.7%, Teck slightly lower, Zijin +2.4%.
Our Take
The earlier 25 August piece in our database on Comex copper’s record $6.7270/lb and a ~$550/t premium over LME three‑month prices shows how quickly the US‑centric squeeze has eased to a $127/t spread, signalling that physical tightness is already moderating even while prices stay near records.
Southern Copper’s near‑$181 billion market value now eclipsing Rio Tinto’s roughly $180 billion, as noted here, underlines how pure‑play exposure to copper is being rewarded in equity markets compared with diversified majors like BHP and Rio Tinto in our recent copper coverage.
With copper and other critical minerals dominating 367 keyword‑matched pieces in our database, the continued price strength above $6.60/lb reinforces the likelihood that projects in Latin America, the US and the DRC will be stress‑tested against higher long‑run incentive price assumptions in upcoming feasibility and expansion studies.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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