Copper price forecasts from Goldman and Traxys: supply-risk lens for miners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper is trading above $13,200/t after briefly topping $13,300, with four consecutive weekly gains driven by sulphuric acid shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure and China’s ban on acid exports from 1 May, which affects about one-fifth of primary refined copper output. Goldman Sachs is holding its 2026 average price forecast at $12,650/t despite a projected 490,000 t surplus, warning that extended disruptions could cut 125,000 t of DRC production and put 200,000 t in Chile at risk, particularly SX-EW operations producing 1.125 Mt. Commodity trader Traxys, led by CEO Mark Kristoff, is more bullish, targeting $15,000/t within 24–36 months.
Technical Brief
- Satellite monitoring shows Chinese copper smelter operating rates hit an all-time high in March.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell sharply in March, tightening visible onshore stocks.
- DRC copper producers currently hold only 2–3 months of sulphuric acid inventory buffer.
- Goldman estimates extended Gulf logistics delays could remove 125,000 t of DRC copper output in 2026.
- For Chile, Goldman flags 200,000 t of copper production at risk, equivalent to ~1% of global supply.
- Chilean mines produced ~1.125 Mt of copper via SX-EW in 2025, fully dependent on acid leaching.
- Morgan Stanley estimates Chile sources ~20% of its sulphuric acid needs from China alone.
- Traxys CEO Mark Kristoff projects $15,000/t copper within 24–36 months, based on long-run tightness.
Our Take
The focus on copper and sulphuric acid in this piece aligns with a sizeable subset of our 1,864 keyword-matched items where chemical reagent constraints, rather than ore grades, are emerging as the binding limit on output, especially for SX-EW circuits in Chile and the DRC.
With around 1% of global copper production flagged as immediately at risk and 20% of Chile’s sulphuric acid supply tied to China, operators in Latin America and Africa are likely to face tighter financing terms unless they can demonstrate diversified acid sourcing or on-site generation in project studies.
Goldman Sachs features repeatedly across recent metals coverage, including the early-2026 copper reversal around $12,000/t, suggesting that project developers and offtakers will be benchmarking long-term contracts and expansion decisions against its relatively bullish copper deck even as spot remains volatile.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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